Are the Lakers… tanking?

They approached the trade deadline with a shopping list, more defense, more rebounding, another big, another wing defender if they wanted to maximize one of LeBron’s last years and push for a championship.

Despite an up and down season, the Lakers are nine games above .500 and are slotted at fifth in the Western Conference. They have big wins against most of the contenders, including the Celtics, Knicks, Bucks, and Grizzlies and have been humming of late, especially since Max Christie played his way into the starting lineup. Some reinforcements would be amazing right now.

What’s that? They got Luka Doncic, Markieff Morris, and Maxi Kleber? Wow! How did that happen? Nico and Rob. Rob ‘n Nico.

(And Mark Williams, from Mitch Kupchak. Just an aside here: Doesn’t there seem to be a lot of trades between Kupchak, Pelinka, and Harrison? The big trade that happened last year that was strangely lopsided at the time and was widely lauded as the move that finally made Dallas a contender was when Mitch just had to have Grant Williams and Seth Curry even if it cost him PJ Washington. I mean, maybe Mitch gets more for PJW if he puts him on the open market… so convenient that the exact player they needed could be had for a player that they needed to get rid of. More on the Williams trade later.)

Who did they trade away in order to get Luka, Maxi, Morris, Williams?

Davis, Christie, Knecht, Reddish, 2 FRP, and one pick swap. Maxi and Markieff are unlikely to contribute much, so this amounts to a seven assets for two after the pair of transactions.

Davis is their top scorer, top rebounder, top rim protector, top defender. Their best player.

Christie is a 21 year old wing who has started 26 games this year and is in 3 of the top five used Lakers lineups this year. The AD, MC, DF-S, LBJ, AR lineup was their best, and fifth most used, lineup at +30.7 points and +18 rebounds. As interesting as Knecht is, Max might be their best prospect considering that he is two years younger than Dalton and has earned starts and is playing productive minutes with LeBron, Reeves, and Davis. While Knecht certainly can shoot well, the other aspects of his game are very far off and he has yet to contribute to winning basketball. (Personally, I don’t think Knecht will ever be a reliable starter, I see his ceiling as 8-9 in a ten man rotation. I do not think that he will reach the heights of, say, Pat Conaughton, or Garrison Mathews.)

Well, ‘disappointed’ is not the right wordâ€" they got Luka Frickin Doncic! Pelinka went to the store for sweet potatoes and Brussel sprouts, and came back with a frozen Filet Mignon at the expense of the grill. I mean, I’m not mad about the Filet, it’s just that you already have that. I suppose they can save it for later… you can always build a good dinner around Filet Mignon!

Besides, if you give people a plate with two Filet Mignon on it, they might be willing to overlook the fact that one of them is overcooked and the other might have something wrong with it. Like, the butcher was a little too eager to be rid of that particular cut and sold it to you out of the trunk of their car in a parking garage in the middle of the night at a discount.

That doesn’t sound suspicious at all.

And Maxi can play a little! He’s not a rim protector, but he holds his ground, is a good passer, and can rebound some. He has amazing synergy with Doncic— the duo was +12 during the playoffs last year! Alas, he is out indefinitely with a broken foot on his surgically repaired foot.The list of bigs who have not come back from broken feet is as long as Bill Walton’s shadow at sunset.

Did Rob Pelinka know that he was trading for two injured rotation players? He did.

Does he know the extent of Luka’s injury? He does.

(He is also ‘not concerned’ about Williams injury history.)

Apparently, the initial offer for Luka included Knecht and more draft capital, but after investigating the injury, Pelinka revised his offer to one of the lowest returns for a superstar in history. Nico Harrison, a GM who needs to win every trade, and who, up to now, has extracted incredible value from the moves he has made for the team, signed away a generational talent in total secrecy and with the blessing of Mavs ownership. Pelinka said that it was he, not Nico, who was taking the risk. And that it was Nico who reached out to him.

What could possibly make Nico immolate himself? How could he shit this messily into the Mavs fan’s hats and hand it back to them? Why invite the wrath of one of the most passionate fan bases, of any sport, on the planet? Like, what is the opposite of ‘he’ll never buy a drink in this town again’ … is it having your bodyguard sip your Accension Coffee before you drink it?

How can he look Mark Cuban or Dirk Nowitzki in the eye? Or any of the acerbic reporters who cover the team, for that matter? Or his head coach? Or any single one of the players? Why put himself on an island in the middle of a gasoline lake with a torch? Why didn’t he put Luka on the trade market, he surely could have gotten a Kings ransom in return?

He must be either stupid, desperate, or shrewd.

There are more questions than there are answers, and the answers provided only offer more complications.

(Note to Mavs fans: Of all of the bystanders to this transaction, I have the most sympathy for you. You didn’t deserve this and if you want to skip ahead the next few paragraphs and not read the hatchet job I am about to lay on Luka, then I completely understand.

Pick it back up at ‘the moniker ‘Magic’…’

For any who continue, don’t kill the messenger for the message.)

If Nico made the desire to trade Luka public, he would have destroyed everything. He would have had to disclose all of Luka’s medical records that might show photographic evidence of something that we only kind of notice now— that Luka’s calf injury is worse than has been reported.

Luka misses 12-18 games every year to non contact injuries. It has been reported that this calf has been the culprit of four different rehabilitation rests dating back the last four years. It has also been reported that the Mavs have put him on IR in order to have him focus on his conditioning mid season. With one staffer reportedly musing, ‘Who puts weight on during the season?!’ Meaning that he is missing time due to his diet/ conditioning and that the Mavs are covering it up in real time.

It has been widely acknowledged that Luka was playing through injury in last year’s playoffs. And while he put up extraordinary numbers throughout, including in the Finals, if you zoom in you see that his fourth quarters were brutal. He was gassed at the end of games. He was fouling a lot. His meltdown in game three was concerning. If the Celtics had finished the job in game four, it would have proved to be one of the very worst examples of on court behavior by a superstar. If Jayson Tatum had that bad of a public meltdown he would have to go into hiding. Luckily, the Mavs blew the Celtics out of the water in game four and after the Celtics completed the gentleman’s sweep, the narrative quickly shifted to how the Celtics didn’t have to play anyone good.

One thing was abundantly clear after the Finals… the NBA could not use Luka as its next face.

A part of being a superstar, going back to the largest superstar of them all, MJ, is that you benefit from the whistle. This was how the league would elevate its stars and, by extension, shower itself with gloryâ€" by giving its stars uninterrupted air time and points, which would lead to name recognition and endorsements. That is the agreement, you behave like an NBA ambassador, and we put you on the line for everyone to talk about. Everyone gets to know how hard your journey was. Everyone gets to know you. Everyone gets to see your shoes.

Now if you can’t stop complaining, if you are always throwing your hands up in disgust, if all anyone can talk about is how you need to stop talking to the refs… if every time the camera is on you, you are showing the refs up, well, everyone can see your shoes then, too.

If you want the crown, you must be able to handle the weight.

He followed the Finals up with another mixed performance during the Olympic qualifying rounds. The stats were superb. In fact, they were the best numbers Luka has ever put up on the international stage. Dude damn near averaged a triple double! But he also had another meltdown on the court. He was also quickly and quietly swept out of the media spotlight as everyone focused on TUSA and LeBron and Curry’s excellence. You can build a product around LeBron’s poses or Curry’s gentle mocking, but you can’t build anything on Luka’s incredulous stares at the refs. He should be viewed as a cross of Magic Johnson and Nikolai Jokic, but instead he comes off like a cross between James Harden and Nick Nurse.

The early exit should have been the best thing for him, a time to rest and recover.

One of the consistent traits of an NBA superstar is that when they lose, they work harder. Jordan and Pippen were so mad about losing to the Pistons that they were in the gym the next day and they entered the following season having put on plenty of muscle. Tatum and Brown both followed the Finals loss (and the ECF loss) the same way— by improving their conditioning so that they can withstand the rigors of a long season. Luka has not shown the same trait. If Luka came into camp looking like Jaylen Brown, the basketball world would quake with fear.

But it wasn’t enough time and he showed up late to Mavs camp, reportedly because of the tight calf, unprepared and out of shape. The Mavs have listed his weight between 250-255 on official reports, but some word is coming out that Luka was closer to 265 than the 245 that had been set as the target.

In engineering, weight matters. It is the difference between a structure that stands and endures, or a one that collapses. And when considering weight, you have two different types of weight: a dead load (like a full filing cabinet) and a live load (like the full filing cabinet drawer slamming open) 245 is a weight that keeps Luka on the floor where he is top ten in the world. 265 is a weight that only holds itself up and does not support the live load of an NBA game in the context of the seismic activity present over the course of the season. It is not a matter of Luka being able to produce at a heavier weight, it is a matter of the weight stopping Luka from playing.

His start to the season was bad. October was especially cruel when, over the first five games of the season he had a 105 Ortg and committed 19 fouls, .489 TS while shooting 29% from 3. I bring up the fouls because that usually means you are playing a step too slow. The 3pt% shows a lack of lift from the legs. He also is driving the lane at a career low, 14.6/gm, attempting a miniscule .099% of his shots within 3’ of the basket, while the number of his baskets coming via assist has ballooned.

Just about every game the announcers felt obligated to remind the audience that Luka would be using the first several games to ‘play himself into shape.’ The start of the season was the inflection point.

November was a little better, but he was only able to get ten games in before finishing November on IR. ESPN reports that during this period he was working exclusively on his weight.

He came back in December and looked much better. Dallas played their best ball during this stretch. His production was back to where it should be, and he put up more than 30 in 4/6 games. But it only lasted 6 games before he needed a two game break. He played two more uneven games and hasn’t played since.

Before he was traded the Mavs were ‘optimistic Luka will return before the All Star break.’ (If a more nebulous health forecast exists, please let me know in the comment section.) And then they were not and the world was upside down.

The moniker ‘Magic’ is the highest honor you can earn on the basketball court. It infers that the player is a conduit for wonder and beauty. That your relationship with the basketball is like that of spell and spell caster. You need a basket from the most impossible angle with five guys on you? Poof! You need to get the ball the length of the court to a cutting teammate who doesn’t even realize that he is cutting yet? Poof! No one can ever claim the name for themselves, it can only be given to you by other basketball players.

Luka is at his best playing with joy. That he doesn’t take things too seriously is part of his charm. This is the curse of the supremely giftedâ€" that the game comes so easily to him that it only presents itself as play. Not as work. This is not to say that he does not work hard, but it is clear that to Nico, who literally followed Kobe around as he went through his legendary workouts, who watched LeBron keep himself sculpted year round, the maniacal grind to keep their body optimized is just not in Luka. It’s not a knock on his character, in fact it probably makes him more personable, but people who are in charge of investing in his future need to see their investment matched. It is imperative that the athlete makes their body available. This is a similar tension that split Riley and Butler— Riley and the NBA can’t use Butler as their face, either.

Before his prime, he is missing 15% of the season to non contact lower body injuries and playing hurt in x% more. He might only be 25, but he has been playing against grown men hungry for a paycheck for ten years. His path to the NBA by casually setting fire to Euroleague is as impressive as there is. And as difficult on the body. There have been some hard miles from Slovenia, to Spain, to Dallas. How many games will he miss after he reaches his athletic peak? Since 27, the NBA ‘peak’ year, is an aggregate number, there is plenty of variance there to include a player that is about to turn 26. Is there a possibility that he has already reached his peak and entered his prime? And that his prime will mean a leveling off in counting stats and a steady decline in availability. Pundits say that the Lakers are building for the next ten years, Mavs fans say that Nico has taken a decade of enjoyment from them. The hyperbole is understandable in Dallas, but to look at Davis, at 31, and say you can’t build around him because of his age is to set a more realistic Luka timelineâ€" this is a six year window for the Lakers, at best. A window that is already 15-30% soaped over and has zero first round draft picks.

You don’t need to look very far for cautionary examples of superstars that have trouble with their conditioning: Zion and Embiid. Joel, called by one trainer ‘the most immature eater’ they had ever witnessed, hit his peak two years ago and offers the best cautionary tale of a dominant player that can’t get out of their own way. A healthy Embiid is arguably better than a healthy Doncic, and yet Phila is hamstrung as a team with championship expectations by his availability. Ditto Zion. If you are honest with yourself, is Luka closer to Embiid or LeBron when it comes to their training habits? Is he closer to Kobe or Shaq? Jayson Tatum or Zion Williamson?

The deal would have to go through the commissioner, the players association would weigh in, and at the end of the day he could be looking at a slew of GM’s that did exactly what his good friend Rob Pelinka did: reduce their initial offers, quibble over how many picks and with what protections and which role players to include in a trade for Luka Doncic!!! Maybe he gets one of those mouth watering pick packages at first, but what if Houston, for example, initially offers 7 FRP and 5 pick swaps and then reduce it to 3 and 2? What if he has to take on the salary of a player he doesn’t want? What if, when it’s all said and done, he’s taking Beal and five FRP that are scattered over the next seven drafts? Is that better than an all NBA forward, a high upside youngster (who might be valued as a low lottery pick in the upcoming draft), and an unprotected first in 29?

Stupid, desperate, or shrewd.

Did this come from new management? Miriam Adelson is as close to the ‘Major League’ villain as you can getâ€" a casino heiress who lives in Vegas and is mostly interested in meddling with Texas gambling laws. She is not a Mavs Fan For Life. Maybe Luka said something offhanded to Miriam and she wanted him gone. Who knows? But the bottom line is that Nico is still standing, so what does that tell you if not that he was doing his job?

I’m not sure what their endgame would be to move the team to Vegas, but if it were a movie trading the beloved home grown star thereby angering the fan base to a degree that they burn down the arena and the team has to play in a ‘temporary’ stadium in Las Vegas would be a good place to start. It pretty much writes itself from there.

Trading Luka didn't get Nico fired, but you know what would have? Paying a repeaters tax on a team that is paying Luka ~$70m to watch Mavs basketball in street clothes with the fans.

(Edit: all of this was written before the Mark Williams acquisition… we pick up after the trade deadline… the end is in sight)

Another improbable move with an old associate? Interesting.

Part of the Luka package is that he needs a certain type of center to unlock his magic. The Derrick Lively comparison is apt, a springy, energetic finisher, a lob threat, except if you mixed in RW3’s health.

Williams is probably better than they ever could have hoped for, a top five talent at his position according to some scoring metrics, but those metrics come at a 22% USG on a tanking team, which is closer to Deandre Ayton than DL. There is no room for that in the Lakers ecosystem, he will probably be about where Lively is, around 13%. Lively is not a standout shot blocker, blocking 5.6% of opponents 2pt attempts, but Williams is worse, only managing 4.4% over his career, and 4.7% during this, his standout season. New teammate Hayes is at 4.9%.

Mark’s on/off numbers are quite bad, as is his net rating of -11.7, signifying that he might be a part of the problem on a 10 win Hornets team. If I described him as ‘anchoring the Charlotte defense, when available’, would that make you say ‘that is the next great Lakers big?’

As I stated above, I’m not a Knecht 4 guy, but Pelinka just used four of his chips to get a guy who, once you take his touches away, might not be better than Jaxson Hayes. They had held onto the ‘31 pick in the Luka discussion, only to include it and a pick swap to get Mark Williams? They might as well have gotten Timelord at half the price. This is as much of a pantsing as people view the Doncic/ Davis swap. Pelinka went to bed dreaming of Luka Lively and woke up with Reeves Williams.

Reddish was certainly a spot where improvement was necessary, but he was needed depth and had good chemistry with Reeves. He was better than Markieff Morris, that’s for sure.

The lineup post deadline:

Doncic, Reeves, Rui, James, Williams

Bench: DF-S, Vincent, Vandy, Hayes

Easily the worst defensive grouping either Luka or LeBron have ever led. If healthy, this is a layup line.

This is also one of the worst shooting lineups that LeBron or Luka have ever been involved in that is bound to see Rui and LBJ come back to earth.

This also assumes that Luka is healthy. He is currently listed as ‘out’ rather than the more optimistic ‘day to day,’ although they mentioned during the Clippers game that Luka had been cleared for 5 on 5 practice.

Without Luka the roster looks downright skeletal.

It’s time to address the elephant in the room… nothing can come from nothing, speak again, King James.

You lead your team to a road win without AD, go and celebrate with your family, and get your throat cut during dinner. Surprise! It’s not your team anymore.

All of those ingredients you wanted Pelinka to get? Well, the answer is ‘no.’

All the passive/ aggressive team building ideas? ‘You get what you get, and you don’t get upset.’

More help defensively? ‘No, and we are taking your best defenders… you can keep DF-S.’

More rim protection? ‘No. Less.’

At least we keep our most promising outside shooter? ‘No. Markieff Morris.’

What is my role on this team? ‘We are going to start referring to Luka as ‘the Heir Apparent.’’

Does my agent know about this? ‘No. Now, if you want a title, you better carry Luka’s team there.’

Whatever James wants, it is clear that the FO just does not care. James, for his part, took time ‘digest’ the trade, and has since said all of the right things: he doesn’t want to be traded, he can’t wait to play with Luka, wants to finish his career as a Laker, etc. but no one can ignore the knife wounds in his back. And he will only suffer the indignity for so long.

While James is a company man, his company is himself and his childhood friend. He brought AD. He brought a championship. He brought the coach. The Lakers were relevant so long as he plays, a lottery team without him. This is not how King James goes out, with his farewell tour shoehorned in between Luka injury updates. No, LeBron will go out on his terms and if his history is any indication, he will leave the cupboard bare.

How is Rich Paul, one of the handful of most powerful agents, supposed to respond? There is going to be no repercussions for shipping your client off without talking to you? Ya’ll talked to Danny Ainge, but not Davis’s agent?! You told LeBron about it while he was eating dinner?! In front of his family?!! I bet even Adele doesn’t play in LA again.

What if Luka comes back and LeBron goes down? LeBron has played 35 minutes a game in every single game this year. You can’t take all he has given and ask for more. The Lakers are turning the LeBron dial to 120% just so that he can usher in the Luka Era on a team that is not built for the playoffs.

Stupid, desperate, or shrewd. These are the three true outcomes of a trade. Up to the improbable trade, I always viewed Nico from the outside as desperate bordering shrewd… signing Kyrie was desperate, signing Grant Williams was desperate, trading him for PJ Washington was desperate, but at the same time, he did put together the team that went to the Finals. Luka, the heliocentric force, needs a specific team around him. Nico gave him that team. There is no separating Harrison from the success of reaching the Finals.

Respect for his part of that accomplishment is deserved, if begrudgingly. If you have already burned your Harrison jersey in the streets and are determined to blame all of this madness on him, then I am not going to stop you from carrying your distaste for the man going forwardâ€" I have no judgement about how anyone responds to betrayal and heartbreak. But with so much doubt around the outcome of the trade, it is fair to extend Nico some benefit based on his performance even if that benefit is just listening to the answer givenâ€" just like Butler in Miami, you simply cannot give 35% of your cap to a guy that you cannot count on to show up and who, when he is available, is at odds with the very officials who control his stardom.

The most common take around the NBA is that LA won both of these trades and will build a future contender around Luka and Williams. Most give the Lakers an A+ grade and the Mavs a D-, at best. The ‘grades’ are immediately called into question because the same sources say that Dallas got better and the Lakers got worse.

None of the press conferences have looked goodâ€" Nico looks like a Dick Tracy villain minus the self awareness, and Pelinka has made this all about himself. If the Lakers were hoping for a really great picture to show off the next phase of Lakers exceptionalism, then they came up shortâ€" Luka holding up the gold ‘77’ is about the most anti-Laker meme you could make. He looks not just blindsided, but genuinely heartbroken. He looks like he is a die hard Celtics fan who is opening a gift from their grandmother who ‘knows you like basketball.’

There was one good presser, though. One where the athlete spoke clearly and had fire in his eyes. One dripping with self awareness and smiles. One where when he said ‘I can’t wait to play with’ their new teammates you believed themâ€" Anthony Davis’s.

Strange times, indeed. Unthinkable, improbable times.

What if the unthinkable outcome is the result of the unthinkable trade… and Nico Harrison turns out to be right?

Before skewering him, consider this:

The real Hollywood Ending is not the one where Rob Pelinka wins. The real Hollywood Ending is one where Pelinka, smoking a cigar and wearing a ridiculous bomber jacket, walks off into the sunset with the bag full of treasure.

‘Suckers,’ he says and chuckles to himself. But the bag doesn’t feel right… something is ‘off.’

He stoops and unzips the bag to find that instead of gold, it is filled with grenades and short of pins.

-Fin