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Showing posts with label VORP. Show all posts
Showing posts with label VORP. Show all posts

Saturday, March 31, 2007

Widening the Gap Between Chemists and Counters

From "Some strange new letters in baseball's numbers game" by Bill Shaikin at the L.A. Times:

Baseball statistics can resemble alphabet soup these days. In books, websites and research papers, analysts present such acronyms as VORP and BABIP.

Major league teams generally conduct their statistical research through consultants or in-house analysts, sometimes covering similar ground with proprietary labels, but even baseball executives can have a hard time keeping up with the expanding universe of statistics. So we asked four general managers if they could identify VORP and BABIP, two statistics developed several years ago.

Ned Colletti, Dodgers
VORP: "I can't remember what the exact definition is."
BABIP: "What's that?"

Bill Stoneman, Angels
VORP: "No."
BABIP: "No."

Kevin Towers, Padres
VORP: "Yes."
BABIP: "You'd have to ask the number crunchers on that one. I couldn't tell you."

Billy Beane, Athletics
VORP: "Value over replacement player."
BABIP: "Which one is that? I don't even know what that one is."

Is it further proof of the deification of Billy Beane that I believe the other GMs, yet I think Beane was being disingenuous by saying he doesn't know BABIP?

Wednesday, February 28, 2007

To VORP Or Not To VORP

I'll admit that I feel like a neophyte with baseball statistics. I believe in them, and I enjoy learning about them, but I'm still a little ways away from injecting acronyms like BABIP, EqA, and VORP into common conversation.

Murray Chass of the NY Times, however, will have none of that. In his latest column of "topics which should be off-limits this season," he writes:

[Off-limit topic:] Statistics mongers promoting VORP and other new-age baseball statistics.

I receive a daily e-mail message from Baseball Prospectus, an electronic publication filled with articles and information about statistics, mostly statistics that only stats mongers can love.

To me, VORP epitomized the new-age nonsense. For the longest time, I had no idea what VORP meant and didn’t care enough to go to any great lengths to find out. I asked some colleagues whose work I respect, and they didn’t know what it meant either.

Finally, not long ago, I came across VORP spelled out. It stands for value over replacement player. How thrilling. How absurd. Value over replacement player. Don’t ask what it means. I don’t know.

I suppose that if stats mongers want to sit at their computers and play with these things all day long, that’s their prerogative. But their attempt to introduce these new-age statistics into the game threatens to undermine most fans’ enjoyment of baseball and the human factor therein.

People play baseball. Numbers don’t.

And guns don't kill people, people do! But I digress. Anyway, as Jon pointed out on Dodger Thoughts, Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus wrote a very classy response to Chass' piece. I agree with Silver, whether you like statistics or not, we are all baseball fans. Let's enjoy the national pastime in whatever language we want to use.

I should note, though, that Chass has shown a penchant for citing statistics like Marginal Utility of Righthanded Relievers Against Youngsters, as well as Contributing Hits As ShortStop. But again, I digress.

Friday, February 02, 2007

VORP 101

A good article for the statistically challenged around here, i.e., me:

Rob Neyer, ESPN.com: "The world according to VORP"

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Kemp Projected to Propel Dodger Offense

So Nate Silver and the good folks at Baseball Prospectus released the 2007 Weighted-Mean PECOTA Projections yesterday. What's a PECOTA, you might ask? Just the dead on balls accurate projection system that some of us have been using to dominate our roto leagues for the past few seasons. While I won't spoil all of the surprises (and, really, you should subscribe to BP to get some of the best baseball content outside of Sons of Steve Garvey), I thought I'd pass along a couple of quick points of interest.

1. Matt Kemp's weighted-mean projection leads the Dodgers position players with a VORP (that's Value over Replacement Player for the uninitiated) to the tune of .295 AVG/.346 OBP /.507 SLG. Not too shabby of a forecast for a 22 year old.

2. Andy LaRoche, the 23 year old 3B prospect, projects to be the Dodgers' second-most valuable hitter with a VORP of 32.5 (.285/.356/.490). Furcal (30.2), Kent (28.2) and "Gentleman" James Loney (23.0) round out the top 5.

3. Baseball Prospectus has another metric called WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player). Loney's WARP projects to 3.7 Wins. While that may not sound like much, Beloved Nomar's WARP projects to just 2.6 Wins. So for the $X Million more a year that the Dodgers are paying Mr. Hamm, playing him over Loney over the course of the season could cost the Dodgers in the Win column. Given how tight the NL West is likely going to be (particularly with the Unit returning to the D'Backs), Grady would be better served to put his Beantown loyalties behind him and try to accumulate as many marginal wins as possible.

4. Finally, for those sadists interested in this kind of thing, J. D. Drew and Julio Lugo project to have a VORP of 19.6 and 15.6, respectively, for Boston. For that kind of money: Ouch.

Basically, hats off to Logan White for his terrific job in scouting. Now let's just hope that Trader Neddie realizes that his younger and cheaper players may even be the better ones.