I suppose it is only fitting that, one year after we “won” the 2024 draft lottery (but were ineligible because of being classified a “big market team” despite the fact that we get the exact same amount of RSN revenue as the Baltimore Orioles by rule, and they’re considered a “small market team” that literally gets Competitive Balance picks every year … but I digress), the Nats “won” the 2025 Draft Lottery and will pick 1st overall in the 2025 draft. We had the 4th best chance (around 10% overall) of getting picked, and we got lucky for the 2nd year in a row.
We’ll now have the 3rd #1 overall pick in the history of the franchise. The first two worked out pretty well … so expectations are pretty high. Based on the current state of the qualifying offer and other comp picks, the Nats will pick 1st overall, then have the 49th pick overall in the 2nd round, the 87th overall pick in the third round, and then roughly every 30 picks there on out (some teams are already forfeiting 5th rounders with QO-assigned FA signings, so we won’t know the exact draft order for the top 5 rounds for a while).
Bonus pools will be announced later, but by virtue of having #1 overall, we’ll have a massive pool to work with. The first pick alone will probably be worth close to $11M (last year’s #1 overall draft slot was worth $10.5m), which is important because the #1 overall pick will not sign for anywhere close to that figure (Travis Bazzana, last year’s 1-1 pick, signed for $8.95M, which gave Cleveland an extra $1.5M to work with), which means the Nats may have some major flexibility to sign another Luke Dickerson-type in the upper rounds and essentially get an additional 1st-round quality guy.
So, all that said, who is in the mix right now for 1-1 overall in 2025? Here’s a few names that have been in play since I started tracking the 2025 draft class. Remember, lots can change in a draft class once the baseball season starts next spring, but for now, there’s two HS guys and a handful of college guys at the top of most draft boards.
Prep guys:
- Ethan Holliday, SS, Stillwater HS, Oklahoma. The brother of 2022 1-1 overall pick Jackson Holliday, son of Matt Holliday. Ok State commit. Consensus 1-1 pick as of Dec 2024 pre 2025 season on several draft boards.
- Seth Hernandez, RHP, Elite Charter Academy HS, Temecula, Calif. Vanderbilt commit. 90-93, reaching 95 as HS sophomore. Top prep arm on board, projecting top 10 of 1st round, improving late 2024.
College guys:
- Jace Laviolette, RF TAMU. D1 Fresh AA. 20/20 season as a freshman. Risen to be 2025 1-1 candidate with 29-HR sophomore season.
- Jamie Arnold, LHP Starter from Florida State. 11-3, 2.98 ERA as sophomore in ACC.
- Tyler Bremner, RHP UC Santa Barbara. blew up in 2024, going 11-1 with 2.54 ERA and 104/21 K/BB in 88 IP. Top RHP on board.
- Cam Cannarella, SS/CF Clemson. D1 fresh AA, ACC Fresh of the year. slashed .388/.462/.560, Team Usa. Took a small step back sophomore year, went from 24SBs to zero (why?) but power stayed put.
- Caden Bodine, C, Coastal Carolina. slashed .367/.456/.609 with 17 homers, Sun Belt Fresh of year, then continued in Cape with Wood to vault to top 10 status. Numbers fell across the board soph season, dinging prospect status.
One last comment. I’ve already seen some comments about Laviolette in particular, which are along the lines of, “well we already have plenty of outfielders, we should draft for need.” YOU DO NOT DRAFT FOR NEED IN BASEBALL. This isn’t the NBA, where you draft someone to immediately go into the 5-man starting lineup and you have to consider who you have in your current point guard position and how long they’re signed for; this is baseball, where players move around positions, where they may look great now but hit a plateau at AA or AAA, or get hurt and miss two seasons (ahem Cavalli). You draft the Best Player Available and if/when that player starts to push an existing veteran, so be it; you cross that bridge when you get there.
Right now, on December 11th, 2024, the #1 pick projection is absolutely Ethan Holliday. His brother destroyed the minor leagues, was the #1 prospect in baseball for most of 2024 and debuted as a 20yr old. Ethan is not his brother: he’s 4-inches taller and projects more like a corner bat/corner outfielder like his father versus a 6-0″ agile defender like his brother. If you told me Ethan would have his dad’s career right now, I’d take it (44 bWAR, 300homers, career .300 hitter with power). Sign me up.
It’s great to dream on a player … but you just never know what can happen in a spring baseball season. The #1 overall pick we get may be someone we’ve never heard of. Paul Skenes went from a decent Air Force hurler in a nothing conference to a guy putting up circus strikeout numbers at LSU in a year, to being the All Star Game starter and nearly winning the Cy Young in his rookie season … so we’ll see what happens as the spring season unfolds.
All that said, this is a great event for the franchise and could absolutely help lead the team back to a decade of prosperity.
Here’s a couple of scouting reports on Holliday.
Todd Boss
11 Dec 24 at 10:07 am
From Baseball America: SS/3B: Ht: 6’4″ | Wt: 195 | B-T: L-R
School: Stillwater (Okla.) HS. Committed: Oklahoma State. Age At Draft: 18.4
Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday—son of seven time all-star outfielder Matt Holliday—was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft out of high school. Like the Upton brothers when B.J. was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2002 draft and Justin went No. 1 overall in 2005, Ethan Holliday could join his older brother as another elite draft pick. Scouts have seen Ethan plenty of times already since he was a freshman when he was high school teammates with Jackson during his 2022 draft year, and Ethan has grown bigger and stronger since then. Built more like his father than his brother, Ethan’s ease of operation in the batter’s box stands out. Holliday showcases a smooth, compact swing from the left side with good rhythm and balance. He tracks pitches extremely well, maintaining a disciplined approach to draw plenty of walks. There is some swing-and-miss to his game, but Holliday has a mature offensive mindset, controlling the strike zone and using the whole field. Holliday drives the ball well now and doesn’t have to sell out to generate that power, with the upside to develop into a 30-plus home run threat. At shortstop, Holliday is a fundamentally sound defender for his age, though at his size, there’s a good chance he outgrows the position and ends up at third base in pro ball, with the middle-of-the-order offensive upside that would project well in a corner outfield spot too.
Todd Boss
11 Dec 24 at 10:08 am
from MLB Pipeline: Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 65 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60
Ever since Jackson Holliday went No. 1 overall in the 2022 Draft, he has told people that his younger brother is better than he was at the same stage. Ethan is more physical and powerful than Jackson and much more closely resembles their father, seven-time All-Star Matt. Both brothers scuffled on the showcase circuit entering their Draft years, but while Jackson was considered a second-round talent at that point, Ethan is a leading candidate to get taken No. 1 in July.
Holliday may have the most usable left-handed power in the Draft and he generates it with little effort. Still adding to his 6-foot-4 frame, he already has plenty of strength and an easy left-handed swing with plenty of bat speed and leverage. He tried to do too much when he got pitched around on the circuit last summer, leading to some swing-and-miss concerns, but he should develop into at least an average hitter with 35-homer pop and plenty of walks.
Holliday moves well for his size and has average speed, though he’ll probably lose a step as he continues to mature physically. He has nice actions and solid arm strength at shortstop, but he won’t cover enough ground to stay there on a long-term basis. The Oklahoma State recruit projects better as a slugging third baseman and could be a quality defender on the hot corner.
Todd Boss
11 Dec 24 at 10:09 am
what makes it so hard in baseball is that you’re often comparing players who are competing at different levels.
that and just how much harder it is in the show vs even high level minor league baseball
then again, players were moved up quicker in the system this year, maybe the same would apply to a 1/1 pick. Soto arrived after 35 ABs in Harrisburg. of course his stats were eye-popping.
FredMD
11 Dec 24 at 11:00 am
@fredMD: Agree. These days though, the players selected at the very top are doing a better job fulfilling expectations.
Todd Boss
11 Dec 24 at 2:08 pm
I’ll move forward my comment from the last post. I agree that at the #1 pick, you don’t draft for need, you take the best player, particularly if he’s thought to be a generational talent. Holliday’s ceiling seems to be quite high.
The big caveat is that a lot can change between now and draft day in July. There was a lot of 1/1 conversation about both House and Green, particularly about House, and he ended up dropping quite a bit. After his college sophomore season, there was talk about Tyler Dyson being 1/1. He slid all the way to the Nats in the 5th round (and did nothing). It would have been heresy in December 2022 to suggest that Skenes would be picked before Dollander, or particularly ahead of Crews.
I’ll also note of the 2025 crop that at this point, it would take a Skenes-like spring to sway me toward a pitching prospect. None really stand out that way to me at this time.
From earlier:
I guess I should be excited, but I confess that I also groan at the thought of having to wait out the maturation of yet another high school wunderkind, yet another one with swing-and-miss issues. The profile of Holliday reads a lot like one of a LH-hitting Brady House. But I know, I know — you don’t pass on a potential “generational talent.”
One thing to watch between now and then is how well the Nats’ prospects for the third OF slot start their seasons. We can include Young in that mix if you wish, but also Lile, Hassell, Pinckney, Green, Vaquero, et al. If none of them really seizes the day, that leaves the door open for considering LaViolette. If he truly crushes it in the spring, he might still be considered anyway with the thought that he or Wood could switch to 1B or DH.
KW
11 Dec 24 at 2:56 pm
It’s also worth noting that the Nat system REALLY needs an injection of power. Will and I both posted about that at Nats Prospects recently. If I’m remembering correctly the Nats had only six players of prospect age in the system who topped 10 homers, which Will determined was the lowest number in baseball. And one of those guys was Jeremy de la Rosa, who will be lucky to still be employed after hitting .187 with a .250 OBP.
That said, there’s a lot of power POTENTIAL, particularly if you add Holliday/LaViolette to Wood, House, Crews, Morales, maybe Lomavita, bigger maybe with guys like Green. Of course that’s what baseball is now. The best teams are assembling deep lineups of mashers.
KW
11 Dec 24 at 3:09 pm
Todd is absolutely right. You draft the best player. Position need is only a tiebreaker. Remember when the Nats drafted Rendon? In addition to the concerns about his injury history, a lot of people were like “are you INSANE? The only good player on the team is a third baseman!” Thank goodness the Nats didn’t listen.
I don’t think that the Nats “got lucky two years in a row” because it’s not lucky to get picked for the #1 overall selection when you can’t have it. That’s just adding insult to injury. They should have had the #1 overall pick in 2023 but got outlucked by the Pirates and so lost their shot at Paul Skenes.
As for who the Nats should draft, I’m not even going to pay attention to that until late spring when the prospects have a little more data behind them.
John C.
11 Dec 24 at 3:17 pm
Well, the weird handling of Matt Cronin this year reached it’s culmination as he was not even protected for the minor league section of the R5 draft and so was lost. I really don’t get it.
Dave
11 Dec 24 at 3:56 pm
Re Cronin – What are the eligibility rules for minor league R5? Was there a way, short of adding him to the 40, that he could have been protected?
I had him as borderline protection candidate ahead of the major league phase. It’s very weird to see him grabbed in the minor league one, and like the 50th player taken or whatever.
SMS
11 Dec 24 at 5:27 pm
The Nats’ MLB-level Rule 5 pick: Evan Reifert, a big-armed reliever from the Rays.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=reifer000eva
He dominated at AA but hasn’t pitched above that level.
Minor-league phase, Nats selected Hyun-il Choi from the Dodgers. He’s actually pitched at higher levels than Reifert, but the Nats must see something in him that aren’t evident in his numbers:
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=choi–003hyu
KW
11 Dec 24 at 6:59 pm