THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Music in other entertainment media

A great read from Poz, where he has several threads going on (he’s the Pulp Fiction of sportswriters!).  I’ll just take a snippet of one thread:

I once heard the great director Martin Scorsese talk about how the key to using music in a scene is to make certain that words DO NOT match up to the scene. That is to say, you don’t want to want a song about dancing playing in a scene about dancing. You don’t want a song about killing playing when there’s killing going on. The connection between scene and song should be deep and ineffable. If you think about the best musical scenes in Scorsese movies, this really is true—think about how that scene in Goodfellas soars, the one where the piano part of of “Layla” plays and the camera follows the murderous wreckage after the Lufthanza heist. The two have nothing to do with each other. But now, when I hear Layla, I feel that chilling scene. Scorsese heard it in the music.

“My song”, the first song I think of that was not written for a movie, but that I associate immediately to a movie, is “Stuck in the middle with you”.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

I mute the TV whenever…

... I hear the word “clutch”
... I hear the word “hot”
... I see Mitch Williams opening his mouth

Your turn.

Thursday, October 04, 2012

Discussion on WAR, WPA etc

This was an interesting discussion, non-heated, generally reasonable.  I enjoyed the discussion.

Even if we grant the debater this point:

WAR suffers from a similar issue, and more. Fangraphs creates it from the sum of wRAA, UBR, and UZR (all of which are stats whose value are disputed in favor of some other stat by some other website), then applied with a vague positional adjustment that I’m sure is based on back calculations of past data but suffer from the same variations described above. Then the whole mess is compared to a “replacement” player, who is also back-calculated based on past data, but is a hypothetical somebody who doesn’t exist, and experts don’t even agree on how to define the stats of the imaginary replacement player. Yikes! WAR is exceptionally useful and probably can be used with broad strokes to paint a picture of who has been good and who has been not good. But it suffers from too many flaws and subjective inputs to be used as a definitive measurement of who has been more valuable than who. The “and more” I alluded to is the disagreement among statisticians about how Wins above Replacement is calculated.

He has not offered us a better alternative!  It’s all well and fine to point out that each metric has its own shortcomings.  That’s what politicians do.  But what’s the solution?  Well, we get none, just like politicians do!  There’s no question that RE24 leaves R and RBI in the dust.  So, becausae of the shortfall in RE24 you are going to…. what… go back to R and RBI?  We all know the shortcomings there are even greater!  We’ll let… what… everyone just do their own thing in some big cloud?  That’s not progress either.

If you are going to choose between your own personal amalgamation and the amalgamation at Fangraphs or BR.com, there’s a great chance that your persona amalgamation has more problems than theirs. 

You simply haven’t exposed it to the world to be told that.

Do as I say, not as I do

Neyer pointing out the absurdity:

Because our third baseman happened to lead his league in batting average. And home runs. And runs batted in. And suddenly, everyone who’s railed against using statistics to determine things like awards, while insisting on the importance of the little things—you know, little things like running fast and making spectacular plays in center field—suddenly, they’re all arguing that we should forget about those little things and instead fetishize a few of the most raw, basic, old-fashioned statistics.

BBWAA Cy Young Predictor

Presuming that the BBWAA will vote based on the following categories, and in this order:
1. ERA
2. W/L
3. IP
4. CG
5. K

Then the top 5 in the AL and NL Cy Young will be:
1. Price
2. Verlander
3. Jered
4. Felix
5. Sale

1. Dickey
2. Kershaw
3. Gio
4. Cueto
5. Cain

With some undetermined love for the big relievers (Johnson, Rodney; Kimbrel, Chapman).

***

Sabermetrically: Sale and Peavy (both on Whitesox) are close, so I know that sabermetrics has made an impact if we see Peavy close to Sale in the voting.  Similarly, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels (both on Phillies) are also close, except for the huge gulf in W/L record.  If Hamels finishes sixth and Lee finishes 8th or something, then we know we’ve made an impact.  I doubt Lee will get even one vote though.

***

I actually wrote a fairly vicious post, but, I know some of you guys are sensitive and that you think we should be “nicer”.  I don’t really agree with that, but I also don’t feel like fighting today.  So, I’m not posting what I really want to post.

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

Vinyl records and typewriters of baseball stats

That’s what RBIs, Pitcher Wins, Batting Average and Saves are.  Bill Parker nails it:

Yet, in a very real sense, those numbers (just to take the two most obvious examples) are totally meaningless. A VCR in good condition will still allow you to watch a tape; a floppy disk will presumably still keep copies of your Word documents or other small files (if you can find a device to read it). These things technically have a use, but are more or less worthless now. We’ve got other things that do their jobs better, and do more besides.

It’s the same way with RBI and wins (and the like); these are “meaningless� and/or “worthless� only because we have other tools that do their jobs better, and more.

Wonderful, just wonderful.  And really, I just love the visual of the old reporter, listening to his vinyl records, hacking away at his typewriter, as he writes stories after stories filled with references to RBIs and pitcher wins. 

Anyway, Bill is right.  If you have nothing else at your disposal, go ahead and use those old stand bys.  But, if you have access to more (and unless you are on a desert island, you DO have access to more), you don’t need those old metrics. 

I know there’s a great fear in discarding what you’ve always had and what you’ve always known.  But, that wading pool has served its purpose.  Jump into the water, and test it out.  And if you venture onto the deep end, we’ll give you a life preserver.

But, if it’s not for you, it’s not for you.  If you want to lie down in that wading pool, go ahead, knock yourself out.  But we’re having a blast jumping off that diving board.  The water is there to save us.

Sunday, September 30, 2012

Hidden Game Irony

Poz nails it here:

In a league filled with people who have been badgering us with “you win games with pitching and defense� and “you can’t tell what kind of ballplayer you have based on his batting average,� for 100 years, it seems odd to me that so many old-schoolers cannot see that Mike Trout is the very essence of what they’ve been talking about.

I keep saying that if we were to NEVER reference numbers, I’d be perfectly happy. 

The problem is that when you start to reference numbers, you are limited to its interpretation.  You can’t start dismissing walks while embracing hits.  You can’t say that HR is everything you need, while not considering doubles and triples.  You can’t suggest that RBIs is mostly about the hitter while saying the opposite about runs scored.

If you don’t want to use numbers, that’s fine.  But if you choose to use numbers, then we’re here to tell you what those numbers mean, and the extent that you can use it.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Insanity of MVP arguments

Jeff nails it right there:

Alex Gordon took a solo home run away from Miguel Cabrera. As such, Alex Gordon reduced Miguel Cabrera’s odds of winning the Triple Crown. As such, Alex Gordon presumably reduced Miguel Cabrera’s odds of winning the MVP. When you put it that way, it sounds ridiculous, but it’s equally ridiculous to think that a Josh Hamilton homer could similarly reduce Cabrera’s odds of winning the MVP. So many MVP arguments end up looking ridiculous when you break them down.

Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Eric Gagne admits in his book of the extent of his usage

The story is here.

I don’t feel like I cheated; I find it too bad that I lied to other players in saying I had always been ‘clean’. That’s what I try to explain a little bit in the book. But I don’t know why I feel guilty. I knew that it wasn’t legal. That it had never been prescribed by my doctor. I knew that it would help me.�
...

You get the sense the “cheaterâ€? label bestowed upon him by the Mitchell Report still sticks in Gagné‘s craw, even if he insists that he didn’t take the HGH to enhance his performance. One sentence in the book, said to him by ex-wife Valérie Hervieux, sums up his thinking. “You can’t inject talent.â€?

Book excerpt available here.  It’s in French.  I’ll read it tonight and report back and tidbits.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Biased Broadcasters

This is a study that tries to find indicators of bias. Since Hawk Harrelson is on one end and Vin Scully is on another end, then I think we can accept the results as relevant.

Chemo or mercury to cure cancer?

A wonderful line over at Crashburn:

...just because [WAR] isn’t a perfect statistic, you don’t revert back to the problematic methods that got us here in the first place. It’s like saying, “Chemotherapy isn’t guaranteed to cure my cancer, so I’m just going to go back to using mercury.�

The whole piece is good, and concludes with:

As it happens, the more accurate our objective measurements become, the less reliant we are on experts who utilize subjectivity. Thanks to amazing advances in medical knowledge and technology over many years, we can quickly and easily run a test to see if a woman is pregnant. No longer do we have to inject urine into female rabbits to reach a conclusion. The progress of and increased reliance on Sabermetrics to answer questions is emblematic of yet another area in which the scientific method has increased our awareness and knowledge where none existed previously. That progress should be celebrated and anyone that tries to tell you otherwise is attempting to sell you swampland in Florida.

The way I try to describe it is that a scout can see something with a handful of plate appearances that our number-crunching would need hundreds of plate appearances to say with the same certainty. And while a scout is limited to how uncertain he can be even with infinite PA, the number-crunching uncertainty level is proportionate to the number of PA.

For example, if I have two PA, I give 99.9% weight to the scout, and 0.1% to number-crunching.  If I have twenty PA, maybe I’m up to 90% for the scout and 10% for the number-crunching.  Get me to 200 PA, and maybe I’m 50/50.  Get me to 2000 PA, and now I’m at 90% on the number-cruncher side.

This is why scouts are the lifeblood to things like the draft and minor league players.  They can recommend promoting players with more conviction than number-crunchers.  Indeed, number-crunchers rely on the fact that scouts recommend promoting players in order to reduce their own uncertainty!  That is, because the scout does something, the number-cruncher can then alter the conclusion of his model.

Monday, September 24, 2012

Media v Media

It takes a generation to make a change, and with Brian Kenny and Joe Posnanski, the Sons of Bill James and Pete Palmer, we’re getting closer.

Friday, September 21, 2012

Jeter speaks… and he sounds like a saberist

Fun interview with Reilly:

Me: OK, you have five world championship rings. How much do you think about Michael Jordan having six?

Jeter: Think about it? Of course I think about it. He reminds me all the time.

Me: He texts you and reminds you?

Jeter: All the time.

...

Me: Peyton Manning changed teams this season after 14 seasons with one team. Could you see yourself doing that?

Jeter: Well, if I wanted to keep playing, yes. It’s a business. People forget that.

...

Me: Least favorite phrase?

Jeter: [Long, long pause.] “On pace for.” ‘Cause it means nothing. “Oh, hey, you’re on pace for 70 home runs.” So what? It doesn’t work like that. You gotta go do it. “On pace for” is just useless.
...

Me: Do you drink during the season?

Jeter: Miss.

Me: [Pause.]

Jeter: No, wait. Champagne—when we win.

SABR 43 in Philadelphia

For those who like to go, here are the deets.

“Oh, No! Not Another Boring Interview With Steve Carlton”

The story behind the story.

For you young kids: Carlton rarely spoke to the media.  So rare, that you can probably say “never”, and you might be right.

Baseball Movie: 42

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18424A trailer of the Jackie Robinson movie, with Harrison Ford as Branch Rickey.

***

Feel free to comment about Clint Eastwood’s new movie, when you see it.

***

Moneyball’s been playing on HBO.  I like to watch clips of it.  The ones that I stick with:
- any time Beane’s daughter is in it
- the war room
- Hatterberg at home
- Beane as a kid

Ones I don’t stick around for
- scene with ex-wife
- Art Howe (I liked him when I first saw the movie, but he’s so listless, that it’s hard to stick through his scenes multiple times)

Brad Pitt is terrific.  I don’t know how well the movie would work without him.

Blackout trial

Passan has all the goods on it.  Great stuff.

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Yesterday’s Baseball America is tomorrow’s Baseball Prospectus?

Well, this seems like a huge shift (or enhancement) on BPro’s side, with NINE people dedicated to following the amateur and pre-MLB scene.

Not sure how this will impact their fantasy, MLB, or saber coverage (just keep adding to it, or a shift), but it will be interesting to see.

Ben’s good people, so at the least we know they’re in good hands.

Tuesday, September 04, 2012

Were Fangraphs’ power-rankings really that bad?

One of the first times I talked about it was back on May 15.  I then followed-up a little later, trying to explain why the Fangraphs rankings seemed inconsistent.  (I can’t find it right now, but I will.)

What’s interesting is that what prompted the outcry was how a well-performing Jays team (at the time) ended up so low.  The whole idea of power-rankings it to describe the state of the team going forward.  After all, we already know the state of the team going backward (their W/L record).  So, the value of these power-rankings is that they can be used in a predictive manner.

Since May 15, the Jays have a 41-56 record, for a .423 record!  Fangraphs, from the data point that most caused the consternation, or at least was the particular point that I used as the example, is vindicated.

Of course, at n=1, you can prove anything, especially because of publication bias.  So, here’s the challenge to those out there: take the Fangraphs power-ranking from that May 15 thread, and show us how they actually did through to yesterday, and compare that to their W/L record on May 15.  Who in fact did better?

What’s disappointing with the whole affair is that the rankings didn’t seem that especially important to SI itself, but seemed very important to its readers.  So, in order to flex your power-rankings muscle, you have to be able to show that what you are doing is valid, and you have to do it in a way that the readers can grasp and accept.

This is why I ignore all such power-rankings lists.  I have no idea how they are done, or if they have any added-value, or what.  It’s just a list.  But, some people truly care about these lists, no matter how absurd the premise or the list.  To that end, I hate to see sabermetrics and WAR somehow be called into question because it was presented outside of its comfort zone.

Thursday, August 16, 2012

Holy Writers to Outrage soon: Melky Cabrera likely batting average champion

It’s a wonderful collision of two worlds:

1. The Holy Writers, and how they guard the gates of morality in sports
2. Crowning the champion of baseball based on his batting average

Both of these things are ridiculous on its face.  The Holy Writers are in no position to judge morality.  And batting average is a peripheral stat that doesn’t deserve any prominence. 

And here we have convicted Melky PED Cabrera with a good chance at winning the batting average title.  This storyline is just wonderful!