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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, December 13, 2012

Dear Ira Podell

By .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

Please stop reporting this falsehood:

...with the variable in salary being no greater than a 25% difference between the highest-paid year of the deal and the lowest.

First of all, mathematically, you can’t say % difference between two numbers.  If someone has 20 pennies, and someone else has 40 pennies, what is the “% difference”?  Well, the guy who has 20 pennies has 50% less, and the guy who has 40 has 100% more.  But, there is no “% difference”.  To do a % difference, you need a common denominator.  Say, for example, there is a 7% difference in how much they revenue split is between the last CBA (57%) and this CBA (50%).

Secondly, and more importantly, the true offer is that the lowest salary is 25% of the highest salary (see: Sidney Crosby, which Fehr cited in his press conference).  So, he can have a 3MM$ salary in one year and 12MM$ in another year.  In other words, his lowest salary is 75% less than his highest salary.  75, not 25.

Now, I will absolve you somewhat, because Fehr in his own memo didn’t make it clear (at all).  But, please, you are driving me nuts with this false information of a key issue.

 


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