Game 28: Mariners at Red Sox
Doug Fister vs. John Lackey, 4:10pm.
John Lackey isn’t as bad as his RA might indicate, but he’s owed $15.25 million this year – and for the next three after that. While his FIP’s inflated by some HR troubles, there are other, more concerning signs that he’s approaching cautionary tale status. His swinging strike rate’s declined every year since 2005 -from 10.6% down to a Fisterian 6.1% this year. He’s walking more, giving up more fly balls, and yielding more contact. Schadenfreude’s frowned upon, but… it’s the Red Sox. An anchor contract doesn’t mean as much to the plutocrats in Boston, and the world champion Giants found a way to win despite the most infamous contract in baseball. Still, Lackey’s descent to mediocrity and Carl Crawford’s awful start changes the complexion of the AL East.
The M’s go for their fifth straight win behind Doug Fister. Last year, Fister pounded the zone with fastballs, and essentially traded whiffs/contact for command. He wasn’t going to strike anyone out, but he wasn’t going to walk many either. His off-speed pitches seemed to be used to keep hitters off balance as opposed to real, K-generating weapons. This year, his approach looks quite a bit different. Against righties, he’s shelved his slider in favor of his curveball with solid results. His pitch-mix to lefties is pretty similar, but he’s commanding his curve much better – he’s simply throwing more strikes.
Line-up (hat tip: Shannon Drayer)
1: Ichiro!
2: Figgins
3: Bradley
4: Olivo
5: Smoak
6: Cust
7: Saunders
8: Ryan
9: Wilson
Game 27, Mariners at Red Sox
RF Ichiro!
3B Figgins
LF Bradley
C Olivo
1B Smoak
DH Cust
2B Kennedy
CF Saunders
SS Ryan
P Vargas
Jack Wilson is still out with that eye thing, which meants we get to see more of Adam Kennedy. Olivo remains in the four spot because if it ain’t broke and all.
The Mariners have won six of their last ten and in that span allowed thirty-four runs and scored fifty. The Red Sox have won seven of their last ten and allowed twenty-five and scored forty-five. One of these teams is regarded as an up-and-comer in the power rankings and fulfilling the promise that they opened the season on. The other is not looked on in the same way.
It’s Time To Bench Jack Wilson
A few weeks ago, I laid out a case for Luis Rodriguez to play more often. After watching the rest of April, I’d like to amend that sentiment – I now think Luis Rodriguez should be the Mariners starting second baseman.
I’ve written several times about why I think Rodriguez is interesting, and why the Mariners should give him a real chance to show whether his power surge in the minors last year was real. Even in limited action, Rodriguez is showing that he may really have made some sustainable improvements that make him a pretty interesting player. After yesterday’s home run, Rodriguez now has an Isolated Slugging of .176, not far from the .200 mark he put up in Charlotte last year. However, we’re only talking 42 plate appearances, so you can’t take any set of results too seriously – it’s the demonstrable change in approach that gives me reason for optimism.
Rodriguez has put 28 balls in play this year – you know how many have been hit on the ground? Five. His GB% is just 17.9%, the lowest mark of any Major League hitter with at least 40 PA this year. Even in a small sample, this is a staggering change from the marks he put up previously in his big league career, when he was your typical slap-it-on-the-ground utility infielder. Now, Rodriguez gets significant loft in his swing, and his approach is to try and hit every ball in the air.
That kind of offensive attack leads to fewer but more impactful hits. Rodriguez has essentially traded average for power, and instead of being an empty .280 hitter, he has a chance to be a .260 hitter with some thump. That’s a good trade-off for a guy who has the ability to hit the ball with authority, as he showed last year in Charlotte and so far in April, Rodriguez fits the bill – he’s strong enough to turn on pitches and drive them into the gaps and occasionally over the wall.
Rodriguez’s season line doesn’t look all that great, thanks to a .222 batting average on balls in play, but that’s not going to last. Even the most extreme fly ball hitters in the game post BABIPs in the .250-.260 range, and since Rodriguez is probably more of a doubles guy than a home run guy, his expected BABIP is probably even a bit higher than that. His BABIP, and his overall line, will rise as the season goes along.
However, even with his current unsustainably low BABIP, he’s still out-hitting Jack Wilson, who continues to show no real offensive abilities whatsoever. Wilson’s entire value is wrapped up in his defense, but as a second basemen who is only playing the position out of obligation – and who doesn’t have enough experience there to be good at it – he doesn’t offer a ton of value in the field either. At this point, there isn’t a huge gap between what Wilson and Rodriguez provide at second base defensively, while Rodriguez’s bat is far more potent and interesting.
We all know Jack Wilson’s days in Seattle are numbered. His continual inability to stay on the field, his age, and his declining abilities mean that he’s just playing out the string until the M’s trade him this summer, eating most of his salary in the process. The hope was that he would play well enough to generate some trade interest and get the team a better return, but that’s just not happening – no scout is going to come watch the Mariners play and report back that they’ve wildly underestimated Jack Wilson previously. He is what he is, and everyone knows exactly what that is. If they’re interested in that package, nothing Wilson will do between now and July will change their minds all that much.
So, now, handing Wilson at-bats that could go to Rodriguez is essentially just throwing away an opportunity to find out just how interesting he could actually be. The only way to know whether Rodriguez can sustain success with his new fly ball approach to hitting is to give him a few hundred at-bats and see what happens. Jack Wilson is in the way of that opportunity.
Ideally, the Mariners would just make Luis Rodriguez their starting second baseman as soon as possible. Dustin Ackley’s going to come up at some point this summer, in all likelihood, and Rodriguez’s chances for playing time will take a hit at that point. The opportunity to run him out there everyday is now, and there’s no better alternative on the roster. Adam Kennedy and Jack Wilson aren’t going to be part of the next good Mariners team. They can still fill roles on the roster, but they shouldn’t be starting ahead of Luis Rodriguez.
Game 26, Mariners At Tigers
Pineda vs Penny, 10:05 am.
I love day games. I realize this a morning game for most of you, but for me, this is awesome. Well, besides the fact that I have a showing on my house (yes, I know, it’s a great time to sell…) this afternoon and will have to choose between watching Pineda and vacuuming the floors. As a heads up, Potential Buyer, I’m probably going to choose Pineda.
Also, don’t look now, but the Mariners have a team wRC+ of 88, meaning that their offense has “only” been 12 percent below average this year. That ties them with the Colorado Rockies, who have the best record in baseball, and it puts them ahead of teams like the Giants, White Sox, and Braves, all of whom are considered playoff contenders. I know it’s easy to fall into the “this team can’t hit” mantra after last year, but when Justin Smoak is in the line-up, this offense isn’t atrocious. It’s not good, certainly, but he cures a lot of ills.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Bradley, LF
Olivo, C
Smoak, 1B
Kennedy, DH
Rodriguez, SS
Saunders, CF
Wilson, 2B
Game 25, Mariners At Tigers
Bedard vs Verlander, 4:05 pm.
File this under the “we won last night, so let’s not change what worked” strategy, but guess who is hitting clean-up again tonight? Yep, Miguel Olivo. Last night, you could justify it with an LHP on the mound, but against Justin Verlander? The guy is one of the best RHPs in the game, and Miguel Olivo’s career OBP against all RHPs is .267. Batting order doesn’t matter all that much, but really, there’s no reason for Olivo to hit fourth against a righty – he’s one of the worst hitters on the team when a southpaw isn’t on the mound.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Bradley, LF
Olivo, C
Smoak, 1B
Cust, DH
Kennedy, 2B
Ryan, SS
Saunders, CF
Game 24, Mariners At Tigers
Hernandez vs Coke, 4:05 pm.
Happy Felix Day!
Justin Smoak returns to the line-up, but now finds himself hitting behind Miguel Olivo. Jack Cust has been dropped in the order, but it’s tough to say if this is a permanent thing or if it is just because the Tigers are throwing a lefty tonight. Cust probably should have never been hitting 4th against an LHP to begin with, after all. Not that Miguel Olivo is a great option either…
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Bradley, LF
Olivo, C
Smoak, 1B
Cust, DH
Ryan, SS
Saunders, CF
Wilson, 2B
Minor League Wrap (4/18-24/11)
In the last wrap, people mentioned that they looked on these as a sign of hope in a troubled time for Mariners baseball. This week, the affiliated went 8-18. Whoops. Some positive things came of it all at certain levels, but one has to root around a bit in order to dig those up in some cases.
To the jump!
Read more
Game 23, A’s At Mariners
Fister vs Anderson, 1:10 pm.
Justin Smoak returns to the team on Sunday, so hopefully this is the last laughable line-up we see for a while. He’s not a panacea, but this team really needs his offensive ability. The M’s are left running four LHBs out against Brett Anderson today, and it’s not like the five RHBs are all that frightening to southpaws. Anderson is one of the game’s premier pitchers, so Doug Fister is going to have to be spectacular to keep the M’s in this one.
Ichiro, DH
Figgins, 3B
Bradley, LF
Olivo, C
Kennedy, 1B
Ryan, SS
Saunders, CF
Wilson, 2B
Langerhans, RF
Game 22, A’s At Mariners
Vargas vs Cahill, 6:10 pm.
After getting shutout by a couple of power right-handers, the A’s will get something entirely different tonight in Jason Vargas. Vargas is off to a pretty nice start this year, posting a 3.40 xFIP through his first four starts. Interestingly, his strikeout rate is up significantly while his swinging strike rate is actually down over his normal mark – the cause appears to be his big jump in first strike percentage (69.8% so far this year), allowing him to pitch ahead in the count and allocate most of his whiffs to two-strike situations where they’ll result in a knockout. Vargas doesn’t have the stuff to keep striking hitters out at this rate, but if he keeps throwing strikes and getting ahead of hitters, he’s got a chance to have another good year.
Bradley’s out of the line-up again and Smoak won’t return to the team until Tuesday, but you’re probably used to this kind of line-up by now:
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Kennedy, 1B
Cust, DH
Saunders, CF
Rodriguez, SS
Olivo, C
Peguero, LF
Wilson, 2B
Game 21, A’s At Mariners
Pineda vs Ross, 7:10 pm.
The Michael Pineda World Tour continues tonight, and while this team might not be “good”, it’s tough to argue with Felix and Pineda on back-to-back nights for entertainment value. I noted this on Twitter the other day, but Pineda has the best average fastball velocity of any starting pitcher in baseball so far this year. The secondary stuff still isn’t there, but the fastball is one of the best in the game.
Ichiro, RF
Figgins, 3B
Bradley, LF
Cust, DH
Kennedy, 1B
Olivo, C
Langerhans, CF
Ryan, SS
Wilson, 2B