VIX and More

Last month I wrote a guest column for The Striking Price on behalf of Steven Sears at Barron’s, entitled: How to Spot Risk Early. That column has received a fair amount attention and yesterday it landed me on Fox Business with Gerri Willis of The Willis Report in a segment with the title, How to Foresee Trouble in the Markets.

I should point out that this was the first time I have done an interview via a remote studio link and the experience was a little unsettling, sitting in a dark room staring off into the blackness while being assaulted by two huge spotlights that seemed as if they could illuminate an entire baseball field for a night game. Without the benefit of a monitor of having any idea what the feed looked like, I found myself talking to a voice inside my head staring into the darkness with absolutely zero idea what the feed might look like on TV. Fortunately the result was not as bad as I had feared.

Related posts:

• Guest Columnist at The Striking Price for Barron’s : How to Spot Risk Early
• VXTYN Measures Volatility in U.S. Treasuries and Potential Spillover Effect
• VXEEM as a Measure of Emerging Markets Volatility and Risk
• Using DXJ to Monitor Development in Japanese Equities, Currency and Risk
• The Currency Carry Trade, DBV and Risk
• Chart of the Week: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Yields from 1990
• Treasury Yield Curve ETNs and Volatility
• Chart of the Week: Ratio of VIX to Yield on 3-Month T-Bills
• Recent Developments in Gold and Gold Volatility
• EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ) at Lowest Level Since March 2008, Diverges from VIX
• Chart of the Week: Crude Oil and Volatility
• The Risk Library
• A Conceptual Framework for Volatility Events
• Forces Acting on the VIX
• St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index

A full list of my Barron’s contributions:

• How to Spot Risk Early (July 16, 2013)
• How to Insure Your Stock Portfolio (April 18, 2013)
• The Case for Options Trading (January 2, 2013)
• Calm Down and Exploit Others’ Anxieties (November 14, 2012)
• How to Trade Options Around Volatile Events (July 10, 2012)
• Be Greedy While Others Are Fearful (May 3, 2012)
• Ways to Turn Volatility into an Asset Class (January 12, 2011)
• There’s Opportunity in Uncertainty (November 18, 2010)
• Will Market Volatility Return to Crisis Levels? (September 15, 2010)
• The Perils of Predicting Volatility (May 20, 2010)
• Take a Longer View on Volatility (July 2, 2009)

Disclosure(s): none

Today’s guest column, How to Spot Risk Early, at The Striking Price on behalf of Steven Sears at Barron’s, is the eleventh time I have had the opportunity to write a column for Barron’s. Today’s column picks up on a theme I addressed in a March 2011 article in Expiring Monthly which was titled, Evaluating Volatility Across Asset Classes. In that 2011 article, I introduce the concept of a volatility compass as a framework for evaluating the different types of volatility spikes that were seen in the 2008 financial crisis, the euro zone crisis as of May 2010, the Arab Spring in March 2011, and the May 6, 2010 flash crash.

[Volatility compass showing different levels of volatility across asset classes during four recent spikes in volatility. Source(s):VIX and More]

In the 2011 article I provide an overview of my thinking as follows:

“It is my belief that a better understanding of the volatility picture across asset classes will yield a better grasp of volatility events and help to identify a number of favorable trading setups.”

Later on I conclude the article with the following thoughts:

“For those who have studied sector rotation strategies and methods for trading geography-based ETFs, some of the analytical techniques used in those two disciplines can be carried over to an analysis of cross asset class volatility.

Ultimately, the study of volatility has both a science and art component to it, but a cross asset class approach provides a more broad-based holistic view of the volatility landscape and adds a little more science to the mix.

At some point, volatility becomes the study largely of contagion and falling dominoes. I can say without hesitation that a multi-disciplinary approach is essential to understanding contagion and dominoes and that a cross asset class analytical framework supplemented by tools such as the volatility compass is an effective way to approach that subject.”

In today’s Barron’s article, I expand upon the idea of four types of volatility indices and address volatility indices that provide a snapshot of geographical uncertainty and risk as well as broader measures of uncertainty and risk across asset classes such as U.S. Treasury Notes and currencies.

I will have more on this subject in the future, but for those interested in researching some of these subjects, I have highlighted some previous posts on different ways of thinking about uncertainty, risk and volatility below.

Related posts:

• VXTYN Measures Volatility in U.S. Treasuries and Potential Spillover Effect
• VXEEM as a Measure of Emerging Markets Volatility and Risk
• Using DXJ to Monitor Development in Japanese Equities, Currency and Risk
• The Currency Carry Trade, DBV and Risk
• Chart of the Week: U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Yields from 1990
• Treasury Yield Curve ETNs and Volatility
• Chart of the Week: Ratio of VIX to Yield on 3-Month T-Bills
• Recent Developments in Gold and Gold Volatility
• EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ) at Lowest Level Since March 2008, Diverges from VIX
• Chart of the Week: Crude Oil and Volatility
• The Risk Library
• A Conceptual Framework for Volatility Events
• Forces Acting on the VIX
• St. Louis Fed’s Financial Stress Index

A full list of my Barron’s contributions:

• How to Spot Risk Early (July 16, 2013)
• How to Insure Your Stock Portfolio (April 18, 2013)
• The Case for Options Trading (January 2, 2013)
• Calm Down and Exploit Others’ Anxieties (November 14, 2012)
• How to Trade Options Around Volatile Events (July 10, 2012)
• Be Greedy While Others Are Fearful (May 3, 2012)
• Ways to Turn Volatility into an Asset Class (January 12, 2011)
• There’s Opportunity in Uncertainty (November 18, 2010)
• Will Market Volatility Return to Crisis Levels? (September 15, 2010)
• The Perils of Predicting Volatility (May 20, 2010)
• Take a Longer View on Volatility (July 2, 2009)

Disclosure(s): none

If you think U.S. stocks have been through a rough patch as of late, then you haven’t been paying attention to emerging markets stocks, where the popular EEM emerging markets ETF as fallen from a high of 42.96 on May 22^nd to 37.02 earlier today – a 13.8% drop in less than one month. A large part of the problem has been the performance of the BRIC countries, where Brazil (EWZ), China (FXI) and India (EPI) are all acting as if they have been thrown overboard with anchors tied to their ankles, making Russia (RSX) look like the most stable investment of the group – which is quite a task.

Investors looking to monitor risk and uncertainty in Brazil and China are fortunate enough to have dedicated volatility indices based on the VIX methodology for EWZ and FXI. These volatility indices were created by the CBOE and use the tickers VXEWZ and VXFXI, respectively. For a more holistic view of risk and uncertainty in the emerging markets space, the best choice is probably VXEEM, the CBOE Emerging Markets ETF Volatility Index that is calculated based on options in EEM.

The chart below shows the relative performance of VXEEM and the VIX going back to the end of October 2012. Note that during toward the end of 2012, the debate over sequestration caused the markets to assign much more additional risk and uncertainty to U.S. stocks than to emerging markets stocks. During the course of the last month or two, this relationship has reversed and the risk and uncertainty associated with VXEEM has grown at a much faster rate than that of the VIX. On average, the absolute level of VXEEM is about 40% higher than that of the VIX. This week, however, VXEEM has been about 60% higher than the VIX.

On a related note, I find it interesting that S&P announced the launch of the S&P Emerging Markets Volatility Short-Term Futures Index just ten days ago. With that index in place, it would be relatively easy to create a futures-based emerging markets volatility ETP that would function in the same manner as VXX, but be based on VXEEM rather than the VIX. The biggest obstacle to this type of product is probably the current lack of liquidity in the VXEEM futures market.

[source(s): Google Finance]

Related posts:

• VXEEM vs. VIX Indices and Futures in Today’s Selloff
• CBOE Adds Options to Emerging Markets Volatility Index (VXEEM)
• CBOE to Launch Futures on Emerging Market Volatility (VXEEM)
• The Evolution of the Volatility Index Family Tree
• CBOE to Publish VIX-Style Volatility Indices for Individual Stocks
• CBOE to Use VIX Methodology for Crude Oil, Corn, Soybean and Gold Volatility Indices
• Chart of the Week: Emerging Markets
• The Emerging Markets Engine
• A Global Indicator to Watch

Disclosure(s): short VXX at time of writing

One of the predictions I made for 2011 was that the trend toward what I have labeled “atomic volatility” (a lessening of the scope of the underlying for options contracts and/or the duration of those contracts) would accelerate.

Back in March 2011, the CBOE helped to usher in the atomic volatility era when they rolled out volatility indices using the VIX methodology for six sector and geography ETFs:

• iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (VXEEM)
• iShares Trust FTSE China 25 Index Fund  (VXFXI)
• iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund  (VXEWZ)
• Market Vectors Gold Miners Fund (VXGDX)
• iShares Silver Trust (VXSLV)
• Energy Select Sector SPDR (VXXLE)

Later in March, the CBOE rolled out futures based on the gold volatility index (GVZ), which was launched back in August 2008, at the same time as the euro volatility index (EVZ) and several weeks after the launch of the OVX, known affectionately as “the Oil VIX.” [Those who are interested in the sequencing of the launch of various volatility measures should refer to The Evolution of the Volatility Index Family Tree.]

Now the CBOE is taking the next step with VXEEM, the volatility index that is based on the popular emerging markets ETF (EEM), and offering futures on that index. The launch of these futures contracts is set for January 9^th and will initially include contracts with expirations in February, March, April and May. Note that the expiration cycles for these contracts are the same as those for the VIX futures and options, meaning that they will expire on Wednesdays (February 15, March 21, April 18 and May 16) and can last be traded on the Tuesday immediately following the expiration. For more information, check out the CBOE’s VXEEM splash page and information circular.

One of the reasons I think products based on EEM and VXEEM have a good chance of being successful is that emerging markets are typically a highly volatile area – much more so than the basket of stocks included in the S&P 500 index on which the VIX is based. Right now, for instance, EEM has a 60-day historical volatility that is more than 50% higher than that of the SPX. All this means that short-term traders should find VXEEM products (futures as well as options and ETPs, assuming they are in the pipeline) to be the types of high-octane trading vehicles that are well-suited to some of their favorite strategies, much like leveraged ETPs and VIX-based products.

Additionally, as the chart below reminds us, emerging markets sometimes move in cycles that are distinct from U.S. stocks. Note that the ratio of EEM to SPX has varied wildly over the course of the past five years and has had different bottoms and tops than the SPX has. Whether this phenomenon will continue into the future (influenced strongly by China) remains to be seen, but the role of emerging markets relative to developed markets should be watched closely in 2012.

Related posts:

• The Evolution of the Volatility Index Family Tree
• CBOE to Publish VIX-Style Volatility Indices for Individual Stocks
• CBOE to Use VIX Methodology for Crude Oil, Corn, Soybean and Gold Volatility Indices
• Chart of the Week: Emerging Markets
• The Emerging Markets Engine
• A Global Indicator to Watch
  

[source(s): StockCharts.com]

Disclosure(s): none