Villanova by the Numbers

As reported by New York Post sports writer Lenn Robbins, Coach Rollie Massimino underwent surgery in Philadelphia Friday to remove a chest tumor. Robbins reports the doctors "...are confident they removed all of the cancer...". The 76 year old veteran coach, who guided the Villanova Wildcats to a National Championship in 1985, intends to resume his duties at Norwood College in Florida where he has been the head coach since 2006.

Prayers for a speedy recovery Coach!

Program Changers Defined
Over on a stats blog -- SR/College Basketball (CBB Blog) -- Neil Paine posted (back in March) a list of 120 coaches, "program changers", whose influence, he suggested, were responsible for "Changing the Culture" of their respective programs. Fans of the Big East will recognize more than a few of the names (the Big East portion of the list is reproduced below), especially given the large write-up he devoted to Louie Carnesecca of St. John's. Filtering his results to focus on those who coached at least 120 games in a program that had played at least 120 games before he arrived, Paine presented his list of 120 culture changeing coaches (based on their winnig percentages versus their predecessor's winning percentage). Among Big East programs, the list includes (note a few predate the creation of the Big East conference)

			Record Before...				Coach's Record
Coach	FinalYr	School	Gms	W	L	Pct.	Gms	W	L	Pct.	Pct Diff
Peck Hickman	1967	LOU	438	189	249	0.432	626	443	183	0.708	0.276
James Freeman	1936	STJO	381	219	162	0.575	208	177	31	0.851	0.276
Al McGuire	1977	MARQ	950	505	445	0.532	375	296	79	0.789	0.258
Jamie Dixon	2010	PITT	2237	1249	988	0.558	242	188	54	0.777	0.219
Ed Jucker	1965	CIN	1009	589	420	0.584	141	113	28	0.801	0.218
Fred Schaus	1960	WVU	891	525	366	0.589	183	146	37	0.798	0.209
Edmund Dollard	1924	SYRA	137	70	67	0.511	210	151	59	0.719	0.208
George Smith	1960	CIN	799	435	364	0.544	210	154	56	0.733	0.189
John Thompson	1998	GTWN	1221	661	560	0.541	822	589	233	0.717	0.175
Hugh Greer	1963	CONN	553	298	255	0.539	386	274	112	0.71	0.171
Tom Young	1985	RUTG	1079	551	528	0.511	355	239	116	0.673	0.163

Pitt's Jamie Dixon may surprise a few, but Pitt fans know he has not only sustained the winning mentality instilled by his mentor Ben Howland, but has managed to maintain a high level of performance for nearly a decade. [Note -- I revised Dixon's numbers to reflect results in 2010].

Citizens of the Nova Nation may wonder why the Mainline is so under represented -- zero Wildcat coaches made the list. I was, so I compiled the records of Villanova's coaches going back to the program's first season of record (1921), and applied the same criteria as blogger Paine. My numbers look like this...

		Record Before...				Coach's Record
Coach	Final Yr	Gms	W	L	Pct.	Gms	W	L	Pct.	Diff
Michael Saxe	1926	0	NA	NA	NA	94	64	30	0.681	NA
Rube Cashman	1929	94	64	30	0.681	47	21	26	0.447	-0.234
Doc Jacobs	1936	141	85	56	0.603	118	62	56	0.525	0.079
Alexander Severence	1961	259	147	112	0.568	614	413	201	0.673	0.147
Jack Kraft	1973	873	560	313	0.641	333	238	95	0.715	0.042
Rollie Massimino	1992	1206	798	408	0.662	596	355	241	0.596	-0.119
Steve Lappas	2001	1802	1153	649	0.640	284	174	110	0.613	0.017
Jay Wright	2010	2086	1327	759	0.636	302	203	99	0.672	0.060

And there, at the beginning of the list, is the answer -- Michael Saxe -- Villanova's first men's basketball coach set the tone for his successors by compiling a 0.681 winning percentage. Had the program maintained a 0.681 winning percentage through it's history, the 'Cats would rank #7 on the All-time list by winning percentage. Through seven successors, only one managed to tally a losing record (and his tenure lasted three seasons) while five managed winning percentages within 100 points (+/-) of Coach Saxe. Having eight coaches over 90 (or so) seasons is uncommon (though not extraordinary); having a single coach in that period with a losing record is unusual.

How to Classify?
The Big Blue News blogger used three categories, "game changer", "solid former assistant..." and "rock bottom" to describe the cycles at Kentucky and how they fit within Neil Paine's original framework. Villanova does not appear to follow the Kentucky pattern. Lack of losing records, or even a pronounced (or prolonged?) downward regression did not really happen in the period after Coach Severence. Doc Jacobs seemed to have steared the program (back) into proper direction, with Coaches Severence and Kraft building on the foundation re-established by Jacobs. Coach Severence, on the other hand, comes very close to the "culture changer" described by Neil Paine, though he falls just short of the 0.160 percentage bump identified in the SR/Blog posting. Coach Kraft logged a winning percentage of nearly 0.072 above the program winning percentage when he took over, the second highest among Villanova's eight coaches, as he led the Wildcats to the post season in 11 (six NCAAs & five NITs) of his 12 seasons. Coach Massimino's winning percentage ranks him #6 out of Villanova's eight coaches, but he is ranks considerably higher in the Nova Nation because he delivered the National Championship that eluded his two predecessors. Coach Lappas may be even more of an enigma than Coach Massimino. Though he notched a winning percentage better than Coach Mass, while bringing Villanova a Big East Tournament Championship (the only one earned in Villanova's 29 years in the conference) and an NIT Championship, making Villanova one of 18 Division 1 programs to have earned both an NIT and NCAA Championship. Though he did not match Coach Kraft's winning percentage, Coach Lappas led Villanova to seven post season tournaments (four NCAAs & three NITs) in his nine seasons, nearly matching Coach Kraft's post season efficiency. Through nine seasons, Coach Wright has a winning percentage that nearly matches Coach Severence's. 25 seasons may be much to ask, but Coach Wright has been running a very hot streak since 2005, compiling a 151-53 record, good for a 0.740 winning percentage, approximately 25 points above Coach Kraft's mark for his Mainline tenure.