Villanova by the Numbers

Recruits, AAU, Shoe Sponsors & BCS Programs
Cracked Sidewalks contributor dr. blackheart puts numbers to a (anecdotally...) well documented pattern of recruit signings in his latest post, "Autumn Sole-stice". Blackheart's numbers put shoe companies at the nexus between elite AAU programs and BCS college programs that heavily recruit the Top 25 recruits from their ranks. According to Blackheart's numbers, 76% of the Top 25 recruits signed with college teams that shared shoe sponsors with their AAU team. The signing percentage dropped to 50% for recruits ranked #51 - #100 (still pretty strong actually). The pattern, per the post, holds for most of the BCS-level conferences, though other factors (strong coaching reputation, local/regional proximity between the recruit and college program, previous affiliation between a recruiting assistant and an AAU program and a shoe company connection between the recruit's prep school and the college recruiting him) can influence a recruit's final choice.

Blackheart provides a breakdown for nine conferences (all of the BCS conferences plus CUSA, the Horizon & A-10). Worth the time to read.

As the regular season comes into the last 2 weekends, Rob Lowe over at Cracked Sidewalks decided to crunch some numbers and take a closer look at the win probabilities for the current tenants of the Big East's 1st quartile in his posting "Predicting the Rest of the Season". Rob believes that 15 wins is the most likely outcome for the top team(s?), though Pitt has the highest probability of reaching 16 wins.

The Nova Nation would be most interested in Rob's last few paragraphs, where he looks at the Marquette-Villanova battle over the last double bye (bye-bye?) spot. Rob's calculations suggest that Marquette has the better chance of winning 14 games and taking the last spot outright.

Very good analysis Rob, a very worthwhile read and I urge readers to get over and take the time.