Villanova by the Numbers

Trickle Down?
Not one of the six coaches released/replaced during the regular season (defined here as 10/15/2011 through 2/29/2012) coached in the power conferences, a sharp break with the trend dating to 2007 (and earlier?). Of the six who were replaced, all but the first (Northern Arizona's Mike Adras resigned unexpectedly on December 9 during an NCAA probe of possible program violations) appeared to be at the overt initiative of the administration, with losing records and flagging fan interest cited as the catalysts for change. Those who lament the path taken by the mid/low majors of the Division I basketball world should at least acknowledge that those programs are subject to the same pressures (revenue, TV exposure, fan/alumni pressure to compete...) as the power conference programs. Adopting the same course of action as step #1 to remediate and set a new course should come as no surprise. The break in the high-to-mid pattern comes at the end of the season. Given the damage to the brand sustained with an embarrassing mid-year termination, high major programs often look outside of the institution for a prestige hire to repair that damage. Nonpower conference program ADs tend to evaluate the progress made during the season and in a number of cases promote the interim selection (almost always an assistant coach) who engineered the recovery. Of the six individuals who stepped in as interim hires last season, three were promoted to the first chair while two others hired someone outside of the program. Northern Arizona has yet to resolve Dave Brown's status, but it seems likely at this point that the Lumberjacks will open Fall Practice 2012 with a new head coach hired outside of the program.

Winning Isn't Everything...Tickets Sales & Tournament Bids Are
That may sound crazy to the Arkansas-Pine Bluffs and Elons of the Division I world, but a 60.3% winning percentage was not good enough to save Doug Wojcik's job. Having logged a 140-92 record in seven seasons at Tulsa, Wojcik's teams had a series of badly timed losses combined with no NCAA bids (or CUSA championships) which convinced Tulsa AD Ross Parmley that it was time for a change. Fans, chastised by Wojcik more than once during his tenure, did not raise the hue and cry in the wake of his dismissal last March. Fan apathy and/or declines in ticket revenue/attendance were reasons cited in the dismissals of Mike Davis at UAB and Chris Lowery at Southern Illinois, though both had compiled winning records while heading up those programs. Unmet expectations, measured by NCAA bids, regression from prior (or historic) success or the even the team's conference record were variously cited in the dismissal announcements of Bruce Webber at Illinois, Doc Sadler at Nebraska and Ron Everhart at Duquesne.

An A-10 Digression
For Baron and Everhart in particular the fire/retain paradigm was more complicated than a single step-back season or year-end slump. Baron, a curmudgeonly 57 year old had clashed repeated with the Rhode Island fan-base during his 11 year tenure in Kingston, RI. A succession of late season collapses with no NCAA bid to show coupled with late off season recruiting sprees (always triggered when early recruits asked out of their LOIs in April or May) left a bitter taste for fans that even four consecutive 20 game winning seasons could not mask. The recession of 2008 worked in Baron's favor, placing enough pressure on Rhode Island's operating budget to discourage AD Thorr Bjorn from mounting an buyout initiative. Oddly, this season seemed to mark a turnaround in recruiting and Baron's efforts to put the program on the path to sustained success. The freshman class, recruited early, managed to get to campus intact and two very promising transfers, Andre Malone and Billy Baron (yes the coach's son) cleared the NCAA-mandated waiting period and joined the team late in December. Baron rekindled in season controversy by tossing senior guard Jamal Wilson, the team's leading scorer, off the team in late December even as the Runnin Rams were staggering to a horrific 1-11 start. The loss tally reached 23 as the season closed March 3. Eight years removed from a honeymoon with the Rhody fan-base, and with non-public money pledged to underwrite a buyout, Baron was released hours after Rhode Island's season-ending loss to Massachusetts.

Duquesne fans breathed a sigh of relief when Coach Ron Everhart pulled his name from the Penn State coaching search last May. Coming off a 19-13 season that included a post season turn in the CBI, fans expected a better outcome (despite the graduation of overachiever Damion Saunders) for the program than the 15-16 run in 2011-12. Everhart had his defenders, but the fan-base, possibly still digesting the bombshell that three sophomores, headlined by T.J. McConnell, intended to transfer, took Everhart's dismissal with relative calm. In an email to the Duquesne Board of Trustees AD Greg Amodio wrote

...We reached the conclusion that this kind of performance was impossible under his leadership due to uneven recruiting, large turnovers among his student athletes and coaching staff, an overall average win-loss record and a losing record in the A-10, poor performance in close games, the predictable collapse of our teams late in the season, and a general disorganization and lack of communication that is clear to those close to the program...

as the principal reasons for Everhart's dismissal. T.J. McConnell's transfer (he will go to Arizona) might have been a big blow to the continued success of the program, but of the 30 ball players (freshmen and transfers) recruited during the Everhart Era, fully 46.7% left the program before exhausting their eligibility, placing extraordinary pressure on the staff to rebuild the roster virtually every season. Everhart, who has won over 500 Division I games over an 18 year career that has included stops at McNeese State and Northeastern in addition to Duquesne, has developed a reputation for resurrecting down-and-out programs, and will no doubt land a job (much as Jim Baron has...) in this cycle.

By the Numbers
Mike Adras' resignation was the first of 36 openings in this cycle (to April 16). Look for 42-48 openings in this off season, which despite perceptions, is about average since 2007-08. Consistent with historic trends, the administration initiated 13 of the 16 openings (81.3%) created before Selection Sunday, an overwhelming number that dropped to seven of 16 openings (43.8%) created during the NCAA Tournament. The coaches have seized control of the process since Kentucky was crowned champion, creating four of the six (67.7%) post tournament openings. Expect that trend to continue through the Spring Signing Period (May 16 this season). Seven jobs (18.4% of the total made available -- if Rick Pitino's leak about son Richard's pending job at Florida International comes to pass) continue to be filled by interim coaches. Northern Arizona closed out the longest job hunt so far (125 days) on Thursday (4/12) when they hired Memphis Assistant Coach Jack Murphy. The Flagstaff, Arizona school went with a native son, as Murphy started as a student manager at Arizona under legendary coach Lute Olsen, filling a number of jobs in the Wildcat program over an eight year period before moving on as a scout for the Denver Nuggets and later an Assistant Coach under Josh Pastner (another former coach in the Arizona program) at Memphis.

by Ray Floriani

BRIDGEPORT, CT. - Friday's MAAC 'marathon' session is in the books. Six games. The four women's quarterfinals followed by a men's first round double header. All at the Webster Bank Arena at Harbor Yard in Bridgeport.

About 9 am at Harbor Yard
Note the Sleepy's ad -- How appropriate.

The scores...

Women's Quarterfinals:

Team	Score			Team
Loyola	68	OT	53	Canisius
Manhattan	59		47	Iona
Marist	61		33	St. Peter's
Siena	36		33	Fairfield

The Men's First Round

Team	Score			Team
Marist	73		61	Niagara
Siena	68	OT	66	Manhattan

Game of the Day...
Loyola's 68-53 win over Canisius in overtime. The regulation finish sparked the ongoing debate, when you have a three point lead with seconds left do you concentrate on defense or give a foul or two even if it puts an opponent on the line?

Micayla Dysdale of seventh seeded Canisius hit two free throws to give the Griffs a three point lead with three seconds left. Canisius coach Terry Zeh discussed fouling with his staff during the time out after Drysdale's shots. Zeh decided not to foul. Following the time out, Loyola pushed the ball and Miriam McKenzie proceeded to release a defended three that saw nothing but net at the buzzer.

Head Coach Terry Zeh (r) discusses the first half
with his Canisius staff

In overtime, Loyola scored first, then got a defensive stop. Even with over four minutes to play Canisius was a beaten team. The efficiency numbers bear this out. At the end of regulation the score was tied at 49. Each team had 58 possessions and an 85 offensive efficiency. Let's look at the totals for overtime:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Canisius	10	40
Loyola	10	190

Clearly, Loyola was dominant in the extra session from tip to buzzer. The final numbers:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Canisius	68	78
Loyola	68	100

Credit McKenzie's shot for the huge swing in second seeded Loyola's favor. Zeh could only second guess. "To the day I put my foot in the grave I will regret the decision not to foul," he said. His philosophy is if you are small do not foul as the opponent can rebound a missed second shot. But as Zeh noted Canisius is big, rebounding wasn't a major issue. He just made a decision that did not work in the long run. The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Canisius	28	24	38	18
Loyola	43	43	27	16

Not a bad way to start with the 9:30 a.m. game. Turnover rates were impressive. Griffs owned a 20-10 edge on the offensive glass. Their 1 of 11 overtime shooting had a negative result on eFG. Trailing early in OT, Canius got into an early fouling mode which explains the free throw rate disparity.

Official Jon Levinson during a break in the action.

Record Game of the Day...
Siena's 36-33 victory over Fairfield set the record as the lowest scoring women's game in MAAC tournament history. The halftime score was 15-7 Fairfield. In 27 possessions the offensive efficiencies:

	Effs
Fairfield	56
Siena	23

Saints shot 3 for 25 (12%) the opening 20 minutes. They did put the first points on the board on a Serena Moore baseline jumper five and a half minutes into the contest. The final efficiencies:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Fairfield	54	61
Siena	57	63

Imagine giving up an efficiency of 63, and still losing? The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Fairfield	30	8	24	20
Siena	26	26	32	24

Three of the four factors were relatively normal. Even the TO rate was borderline but not excessive. The field goal shooting, as both coaches pointed out, was most affected by defensive efforts which were present on both ends. The game had two double digit scorers with Maja Gerlyng of Siena leading the way with 14 points. Moore of Siena, a versatile threat had a commendable 9 point 10 rebound effort, but was 2 of 14 from the floor. The two teams shot 49% from the field, combined. Fairfield checked in at 26.5% while Siena was 23.4%. As Siena coach Gina Castelli said, "it (the game) was hard fought, there was some great defense, especially on Fairfield's part the first half, out there but face it. It was ugly. Everyone saw it."

The Guiness stand.
An 'oasis' yours truly had to bypass.

Men's First Round
It has been another struggle for the Marist men but they did earn a quarterfinal berth with their win over Niagara. The pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Marist	66	111
Niagara	67	91

Marist entered the game with a -18 efficiency margin (offense minus defense). Their average offensively was 91 and defense checked in at 109. So this was as good a performance as the Red Foxes have had this year. The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Marist	51	24	34	15
Niagara	36	38	38	19

Chucky Martin's team clicked on all cylinders. Marist shot the ball well and took care of the ball, two vital areas. They were only 5 of 17 (29%) from three but were 22 of 41 (54%) from two point range. An impressive showing.

In the paint Marist enjoyed a 42-26 scoring edge. While Niagara did not commit many turnovers, they paid dearly was the Red Foxes had a 20-10 advantage in points off turnovers.

With little consistent help, Niagara's fine senior guard Anthony Nelson led all scorers with 28 points.

The Streak Lives
The nightcap saw Siena defeat Manhattan in overtime. Siena, winner of three straight MAAC championships has not lost a conference tournament game since 2007 when Niagara defeated the Saints, ironically at Harbor Yard in the final.

The pace was in the moderate range:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Manhattan	64	103
Siena	66	104

Siena had a high 26% TO rate. They were able to offset that a bit with their 51% eFG mark and a 44% OREB percentage. The Jaspers managed only 39% in that latter category.

Ryan Rossiter, Siena's 'double-double machine' , scored 17 points and pulled down 14 rebounds. A big difference was Clarence Jackson. The Siena senior guard stepped up and hit a game high 24 points for the Saints. Interestingly neither Rossiter nor Jackson has experienced a MAAC tournament loss in their careers.

The obligatory cheer shot -- Siena cheerleaders

Notes
With overtime games to start and end the 6 game session, fans were treated to almost 15 hours of basketball.

On the officiating front, a number of friends worked games during the tournament. On the women's side Joe Barrise and Jon Levinson, whom I have had the pleasure to work with, had Marist-St. Peter's. Gary Schimel, an instructor at a few officiating camps I attended, had the 'famous' Siena-Fairfield matchup. In the evening Brian O'Connell and Brian Dorsey, again another pair I have been fortunate to work with, had Marist-Niagara.

No predictions but…Marist, with a defensive efficiency of 69 for the year (they held St. Peter's to 47 in the quarterfinal), will be awfully tough to dethrone from the top spot in the women's tournament. On the men's side, Fairfield is the favorite but any of the other top four seeds, Iona, Rider or St.Peter's, could challenge.

Harbor Yard on the exit
as Paul Simon would say 'late in the evening'

by Ray Floriani

JERSEY CITY, NJ - St. Peter's started the new year off right with a 63-55 decision over Canisius at Yanitelli Center. Coming into this first MAAC meeting of the new year the emphasis was on pace. Their two conference games saw visiting Canisius post the second fastest tempo in the league with a 79 (Marist led with 80) possessions per game. St. Peter's, was at the bottom with a 59 possession pace. Clearly, Canisius favored a break dance, St. Peter's a waltz.

The first half saw the Griffs determined to run. In a half court setting, Canisius seemed tentative and unsure of a method to effectively break down the St. Peter's defense. On the other side, the Peacocks look for an opportunity break on a few early possessions. If transition was not present, John Dunne's club was more than willing to settle for a half court tempo. The halftime pace and efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Canisius	35	71
St. Peter's	34	82

St. Peter's led at the break 28-25. Only a 29% TO rate kept the Peacocks from building a larger lead. The Peacock defense was significant as the Griffs struggled with a 39% eFG mark and were forced into a 23% TO rate of their own.

The second half saw the Peacocks open the first four minutes with an 11-5 run. That gave St. Peter's a 39-30 edge. Nine points with 16 to play is not a huge deficit. Given the struggles of Canisius however, it was a notable margin at that juncture.

The Four Factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Canisius	41	14	33	21
St. Peter's	51	35	31	25

Canisius got it to a two possession game late but could never get closer as the Peacocks sealed it from the line. The Griffs struggled in half court sets against suffocating ball pressure. The other route was from beyond the arc and Tom Parrotta's club was a woeful 7 of 26 (27%) from three point range. From two point range, Canisius shot a paltry 13 of 31 (42%).

With leading scorer Wesley Jenkins sidelined (about another 10 days-two weeks) with a knee injury, St. Peter's has seen several players get more minutes and respond. Jeron Belin was one who came through tonight with 12 points. The senior forward also converted on two key penetrations down the stretch.

The TO rate "improved" to 25% by the game's end. That is an area of concern for St.Peter's as they entered the contest with a 23% turnover mark.

Defense, as the opposing eFG and TO rates suggest, was very strong. Entering the game St. Peter's had a 93 defensive efficiency on the season.

The final efficiency numbers:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Canisius	67	82
St. Peter's	63	100

Pace, something John Dunne discussed afterward, was definitely in St. Peter's favor. Dunne's club controlled tempo the second half and forced Canisius into a half court scenario.

Final Numbers.
Canisius is 6-7 (0-3 MAAC. St. Peter's improves to 8-6 (3-0). Nick Leon led all scorers with 20 points. The St. Peter's senior guard also had 4 assists. Jeron Belin added 8 rebounds to compliment his dozen points.

Canisius was paced by sophomore guard Alshwan Hynes, coming off the bench for 16 points (5 of 10 from beyond the arc). Senior forward Tomas Vazquez-Simmons rejected 4 shots for Canisius who had 6 overall. Teams were even 24-24 scoring in the paint. Turnovers almost spelled St. Peter's undoing as Canisius enjoyed a 23-17 scoring edge in points off turnovers. Seniors abound on Canisius but the Griffs are 0-3 in MAAC play. Graduation loss of Frank Turner hurt more than anticipated. Opening with three on the road in conference did not help either.

St. Peter's assistant Bruce Hamburger
discusses the game on radio

by Ray Floriani
NEW YORK CITY, NY -- On the media day circuit the MAAC held it event at BB King’s in midtown Manhattan. King’s ‘70 hit ‘The thrill is gone’ is a personal favorite and looking over some of the memorabilia of the noted artist was an added extra.

The MAAC rocked the house
at BB King's

On the basketball side, the media day once again gave an opportunity to take an informal survey of MAAC coaches utilizing tempo free statistics today.

Did not get a chance to speak with every MAAC mentor regarding tempo free but the ones inquired, had some opinions of note.

Ed Cooley, coach of pre-season favorite Fairfield noted, "I’m not really big on statistics except the final score. I’m old school, we have two teams the one with the most points is the winner." On further discussion Golden did admit his staff keeps very close attention to, charting and breaking down stops during a game. It was pointed out the discussion with Xavier’s Chris Mack over stops. With Mack, three straight stops are a 'kill' and seven kills in a game almost guarantee a win. "I’ll go along with that idea," Golden said. "To us during a game stops are vital and is a major statistic we want to keep track of."

Coach Ed Cooley of conference favorite Fairfield
discussing his club's outlook

Tom Parrotta of Canisius did not give much thought in the past to tempo free but may take a look at the numbers thanks to a certain software 'package'. "when I was recruiting at a tournament in Las Vegas a representative of Synergy showed me his product," Parrotta said. "I said 'show me Canisius’ out of bounds plays.' He put in some data and remarkably the sets we used on out of bounds series came up. I was sold."

According to Parrotta Synergy represents a great tool to utilize in scouting. "It shows everything," he said. "It breaks down everything by numbers so if one wants to use tempo free stats Synergy will have the entire breakdown." For Parrotta, his new found coaching aide will supply vital information on opponents and his own club just as well.

Tim Cluess of Ions is not only new to his school and the conference, he's the D I 'rookie' as well. From high school through Division II Cluess has been very successful on the sidelines. He takes a very enthusiastic approach to his current position at Iona. Tempo free statistics is something he is very interested in but until now unable to further investigate. "I would have liked to really get into those type of (tempo free) concepts in the past," Cluess admitted. "On the Division II level you are limited in staff and personnel. Here at Iona we have a full compliment so statistical breakdowns are something I will get into more."

Certain to play a major role for Cluess in stats breakdown area is Zak Boisvert. Zak realized playing college ball was out so he decided to work towards becoming a college coach. The last three years as student manager at Fordham Boisvert immersed himself in the game. Watching games when Fordham wasn’t playing, he would diagram plays, write them up on Fastdraw and submit them to the mens basketball hoop scoop site. His work on that site drew rave reviews from monitor Scott Peterman, a former college coach. Boisvert’s passion and love of the game no doubt landed him in New Rochelle. Beside film exchange, film edits, putting out a coaches' newsletter and related tasks, Boisvert promises to get involved more in tempo free studies. He’s read Dean Oliver’s Basketball on Paper, which is as good a start as any.

On the women’s side, got to speak with Megan Gebbia a Marist associate coach and integral part of the program’s outstanding success. Marist has been the MAAC’s flagship program on the women’s side for several year now.

Megan noted that Brian Giorgis and his Marist women’s staff do not utilize tempo free stats per se but it is a concept that interests them. Discussing some of the four factors she was intrigued, especially regarding turnover percentage. "I would like to know our (TO pct)," she said. "That is something we need to improve on."

To get into the analytical groove the following can serve as a 'shoot around'. A Four Factor breakdown of Marist women in 2009-10.

Pace : 67 possessions per game
Offensive points per possession:	1.00
Defensive points per possession:	0.86

The Four Factors for the Lady Red Foxes:

		FTA	Off
	eFG%	FGA	Reb%	TOv%
Offense	47%	26%	31%	20%
Defense	40%	17%	36%	23%

[Note -- Defense is opponents' offensive efficiency]

A little surprised Marist’s offensive efficiency (points per possession * 100) was 100. But all games in a 26-8 season were factored. The MAAC is a respectable conference and out of the league Giorgis opts for good competition. Megan was right on the money regarding turnovers as frequently noted 20% or more is too high. Defensively Marist did the job. The opponents points per possession was only .86, but the turnover rate of 23% and effective field goal percentage , a paltry 40%, shows Marist not only forced miscues but dictated the shots the opposition was getting. And not particularly successful in converting.

Coaches are copy cats. If someone won a national championship and in post game interviews attributed it to tempo free statistical research and studies, every D I staff in America would follow suit. By the next morning. Many schools do not utilize this tool fully. But they aware of the existence. That’s a good start.

MAAC pre-season player of the year
Ryan Rossiter of Siena poses with a Special Olympian
and guest of the MAAC

by Ray Floriani

ALBANY, NY - The men’s first round games on Friday were the fifth and sixth of the day at the Times Union Center. The women’s quarterfinals proceeded and the men got their tournament rolling at 7:30.

Albany Times Union Arena

The first game saw a mild surprise with ninth seeded Manhattan knocking off eight seed Loyola 94-79. In a 71 possession (Manhattan 72 Loyola 69) game:

	Off		FTA
	Eff	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Manhattan	131	48	66	46	13
Loyola	115	56	40	46	25

As noted in the women’s rundown no team hit 100 for offensive efficiency. This game was an aggressive wide open contest with a lot of offense and at many times, token defense.

Rico Pickett of Manhattan had 23 at the half and finished with a game high 33 points. On the other end Shane Walker, a 6-10 Loyola sophomore, had two at halftime and went on a tear to finish with a team pacing 26 points.

Both teams had high free throw rates as evidence of the physicality and frequent trips to the line. Manhattan shot 38 of 46 while Loyola went 21 of 30.

Jaspers also had a slight edge 17-14 on the offensive glass. Loyola shot the ball better but that 25% turnover rate did the offense in. For a wide open affair, Manhattan did very well caring for the ball with just 9 turnovers.

The efficiency numbers saw Pickett, a junior guard, with a 30 in 34 minutes for an impressive .882 eff/min metric.

Walker had an efficiency of 31 and an excellent .969 eff/min rating. Pickett shot 10 of 18 from the floor and was 3 of 8 from three. To put it very kindly, his shot selection was ‘liberal’.

The nightcap saw Canisius end the Marist campaign at 1-29 with a 72-54 decision. The numbers in a 61 possession (Canisius 62 Marist 60) game:

	Off		FTA
	Eff	eFG%	FGA	OReb%	TO%
Canisius	120	56	32	44	18
Marist	87	48	8	27	26

As they have done through the long season, Marist battled gamely. It was a two possession game until the Griffs hit a last second trey to go into the break ahead 34-26. That shot basically took its toll as the Red Foxes ended their long season.

Once again, youth (a 26% TO rate) and lack of consistent inside play doomed Marist. The offensive rebound disparity as well as that from the foul line illustrate some of the interior problems Chucky Martin’s Marist club has faced all season. Canisius shot 13 of 25 (52%) from two point range, another sample of evidence regarding Marist’s interior problems.

Canisius was very impressive in the TO rate category. That’s the difference. Tom Parrotta has the ball in the hands of an excellent senior lead guard, Frank Turner, one turnover in 37 minutes. Martin is relying on mostly first and second year players. Whom he hopes will only get better.

“I am foaming at the mouth.” - Manhattan guard Rico Pickett regarding a quarterfinal meeting with top seed Siena.

“We wanted to come to the (MAAC) tournament to play our best. To us it’s a new season” - Manhattan coach Barry Rohrssen

Darryl Crawford, Manhattan College
answers reporters questions

by Ray Floriani

ALBANY, NY - On Friday it was New York’s capital city for six, yes six games. The women’s quarterfinals tipped off at 9:30 a.m. The men’s first round doubleheader started at 7:30 p.m. and ended up somewhere around midnight. For the basketball fanatic who revels in the reality of such a schedule, the ‘MAAC six pack’ is as good as it gets.

This is a great opportunity to take a statistical and analytical look at the women’s quarterfinals with the men’s doubleheader to follow later. The scores:

Team	Score		Team	Score
Iona	59		Siena	43
Fairfield	70		Loyola	56
Marist	57		Canisius	38
Niagara	66		Manhattan	54

Times Union Center, Albany, NY
30 minutes before Women's Tournament tip off

The following chart shows how the teams fared in their quarterfinal meetings. We limited the four factor section to effective field goal percentage and turnover rate to display a noticeable trend throughout the morning, and afternoon.

		Off.
	Pace	Eff.	eFG%	TO%
Iona	69	86	39	20
Siena	69	62	32	32
Fairfield	72	97	52	25
Loyola	72	78	36	15
Marist	63	91	38	11
Canisius	59	64	29	25
Niagara	68	97	52	22
Manhattan	68	79	39	29

A noticeable common thread is offense, or the struggle to produce it. Call it good defense and the heightened urgency of ‘survive and advance’ tournament time. No team had an offensive efficiency of 100. Niagara, which narrowly missed triple digits OE, and Fairfield were the only teams to crack 50% in effective field goal percentage. Again, the defense digs in a little more come March.

Marist, 15-3 the regular season champion, values the ball and defends extremely well. Coach Brian Giorgis would have it no other way. Red Foxes had a great 11% TO Rate (TO% - no shock) but their 38% eFG mark kept the OE under 100. Again, the defense was paramount with Canisius losing a quarter of their possessions to turnovers and failing to hit 30% for the eFG category. Those miscues were extremely costly for the Griffs as Marist enjoyed an 18-8 edge in scoring off turnovers.

Good officiating friend Joe Barrise was on the first game. Joe & crew enjoyed a nice tempo with the first foul not occurring until 8:05 had elapsed.

Iona coach Tony Bozzelli had a priority against Siena -- contain Serena Moore, the saints’ main inside threat. Mission accomplished. Moore scored 14 points but was 3 of 11 from the field. For the Gaels their outstanding forward Thazina Cook, committed 5 of Iona’s 20 turnovers. All was forgiven as Cook in general had an outstanding game leading all with 19 points 11 rebounds in 35 minutes.

I never tire of watching, and admiring, the play of Marist's Rachelle Fitz. The MAAC Player of the Year never forces a thing, is the consummate unselfish and fundamentally sound performer. Fitz, a 6-0 senior forward, had a solid 12 point 8 board effort for the Red Foxes.

Stephanie Geehan of Fairfield, the MAAC defensive player of the year, came up with sixteen rebounds (14 defensive) four blocks and four steals against Loyola. A 6-2 senior center, Geehan showed per prowess is not limited to the defensive end as she led the way with 22 points. Geeham was over 50% inside and out shooting 7 of 13 (54%) from two point range and 2 of 3 (67%) beyond the arc.

The sacred arc. The three pointer is a weapon. It can get you back in games or at times, when misfired, bury you deeper in deficit. During the four games it was evident the three was very much in use. Teams used it to try to come from behind or when the opposing defense didn’t give up much inside and the shot clock was ticking. The following chart is the percentage of field goal attempts from beyond the arc in the quarterfinal contests.

	3FGA
	FGA
Canisius	44
Iona	37
Marist	35
Siena	33
Niagara	33
Loyola	32
Fairfield	24
Manhattan	19

Canisius’ best inside player Ellie Radke (3 points 1 of 9 shooting) was smothered by the Marist defense so the three was necessary for Terry Zeh’s club. Iona shot a number of threes but didn’t hit many (5 of 22). Their overall shooting was not a strong point but the defense was. Fairfield is a good outside shooting team with All-Rookie guard Katelyn Linney, a deft three point shooter. Not much of a need for long distance with Stephanie Geehan controlling the paint. Manhattan trailed by 4 at the half then fell behind by double digit’s the second half. Still, the Lady Jaspers did not shoot threes until the latter desperation minutes. They basically stuck to their half court game plan and tried to attack the basket.

Move over Wilt and Bevo. Small samples may give good insight but beware. Case in point Maggie Blair of Manhattan. The 5-10 freshman guard played the last four minutes and scored 10 points, second on the team to Michelle Pacheco’s 11. Blair’s numbers project to a 100 point scoring effort. Again, watch those small sample projections. The high scoring likes Wilt Chamberlain and Bevo Francis did not have the three pointer in their day. Blair did and two treys didn’t hurt those numbers. The following is the breakdown for that four minute effort. Her efficiency was 11 with an eff/min an unheard of 2.75. Any efficiency per minute even just past 1.00 is outstanding.

Blair’s abbreviated outburst marked her only points, of the season. She had appeared in five games without a point. It also tells us coach John Olenowski will give Blair a good long look next pre-season.

						Eff
	FGs	3FG	FT	Pts	Eff	Min
Blair	3-4	2-2	3-2	10	11	2.75

The first round was on Thursday with Canisius defeating St.Peter’s 65-57 and Siena knocking off Rider 45-25. I was not in attendance but that latter game simply begs for study and mention. The numbers:

		Off.
	Pace	Eff.	eFG%	TO%
Rider	61	41	16	26
Siena	62	73	35	19

It was the tournament record for fewest combined points in a game. Rider set a single game low, breaking Loyola’s 27 of a year ago. In fact Marist media relation staff jokingly said a record they thought would last was gone in a year. In last year’s MAAC tournament the Marist women held Loyola to 27 points in an early round victory.

The Rider efficiency , if not the lowest , is one of the lowest in my two decades or so of studying points per possession. The eFG mark of 16% has to be the lowest uncovered. Then again when turnovers (16) are twice the number of field goals (8) this is what you get.

Siena did not actually put up world beating numbers. The Saints led 18-11 at the half before significantly pulling away after intermission. In fact the offensive efficiency at the half was:

	Eff.
Siena	55
Rider	34

So at least Rider could take solace in having played a better final twenty minutes.

“People are saying Marist might get beat (in the MAAC tournament) but they did go 15-3 (conference) and lost to nationally ranked Oklahoma in overtime. They are a team whose big stars make plays and unheralded players step up. “ - Canisius coach Terry Zeh

MAAC coach of the year Kendra Faustin of Niagara
takes post game questions with two members
of the Purple Eagles squad

by Ray Floriani

JERSEY CITY, NJ - Call it "weekend at Yanitelli" or maybe "Jesuit weekend". On Sunday it was back to St.Peter’s. This time a noon men’s game as St.Peter’s edged Canisius 73-72 in overtime. The efficiency and four factors in an 81 possession game (Canisius 81 SPC 80):

			FTM
	ORtg	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Canisius	89	41	41	36	27
St.Peter’s	91	47	19	33	23

In what can be termed an oddity, Canisius eFG% mark equaled the free throw rate. Griffs struggled from the floor shooting 20 of 59 (34%) overall percentage but got to the line for 34 attempts and knocked down 24.

For a team with recent offensive woes, Canisius could not afford to give away over a quarter of their possessions. The committed 22 turnovers for a disaster of a 27% TO RATE (TO%). Granted, I’ve seen worse rates, but in a one possession OT game on the road that 27% jumps right off the sheet.

Frank Turner was the big sorty for Caniusis. St.Peter’s contained the Griffin guard the first half but a senior point guard with his ability will not stay quiet for long. Turner led Canisius with 23 points and had 11 rebounds. The latter mark is indicative of Hustle as Turner is all of 5-10 in height. St.Peter’s coach John Dunne admitted it would be too difficult to stop Turner the entire game. “He (Turner) did a great job using the pick and rolls to split our defenders.” Turner tied the game on a drive going end to end the final eight seconds in regulation.

St.Peter’s was led by Wesley Jenkins with a game high 25 points. Jenkins got St.Peter’s going in overtime as the Peacocks had lost the momentum near the end of regulation.

St.Peter’s missed a few crucial free throws in regulation and overtime. Peacocks shot 11 of 24 from the charity stripe. Dunne has a good outlook on free throws. “I know no player goes up there to miss,” he said. “If they do miss I am more concerned how we defend. Giving up easy shots on defense after a miss is worse than the miss.”

Scoring. Once again Canisius struggled in the scoring column. The last few losses have seen the Griffins putting points on the board a difficult proposition. Prior to today’s game the last three losses have seen Canisius average 54 points per game while shooting 35% from the field. A closer look:

			Off.
Date	Opponent	Score	Eff.
Jan 24	St.Peter’s	68-55	83
Feb 1	Iona	72-53	80
Feb 5	Niagara	66-54	83

Sandwiched among those losses was a January 29th 73-70 win over Niagara. Even in that one the OE was 97. Slightly less than acceptable.

Interesting Cheer. A fan seated behind me did not agree with an official’s call. “hey ref’, she yelled, ‘this is not the Forum’. Interesting since Canisius is from Buffalo and the Forum is in LA. Over 3,000 miles and seemingly a universe apart. Then the association hit. Canisius wears gold uniforms as the LA Lakers do at home. And not knowing Canisius’ home court, Koessler Center, and probably not sure where Canisius is located, the fan used the Forum as reference. That’s why ‘fan’ is short for fanatic.

The call was right. Final possession with two seconds left in OT. St.Peter’s was up three Turner had the ball beyond the arc. Yvon Raymond of St.Peter’s grabbed Turner on a reach in before he could start a shooting motion. It was a two shot (double bonus) foul. Canisius coach Tom Parrotta disagreed. The time between seeing the foul and calling it could be a second which is like an eternity. As the whistle went off Turner was beginning the motion but that whistle was a response to a grab before the shooting motion. The call was right. Turner hit the first, tried to miss the second and banked it in. St.Peter’s was fouled on the inbound and proceeded to miss both shots. The horn went off as a Canisius player was able to secure the rebound.

Coach Dunne's Super Bowl pick. “I’m going with the Colts because I am a Giant fan and Eli Manning’s brother Peyton plays for them. I wouldn’t mind seeing the Saints win because it could a lot for that city that has been through so much.”

Records. Canisius is 11-14, 6-8 in the MAAC. St.Peter’s improves to 14-10, 8-6 in conference.

“We could have folded but we stayed mentally tough. It wasn’t our best game but we a Canisius team with an outstanding point guard and a team that plays hard.” - St.Peter’s coach John Dunne

Frank Turner of Canisius

by Ray Floriani

ALBANY, NY - For years fans would peruse NCAA statistics and assume the teams allowing the fewest points played the best defense. It wasn’t until recently, with the tempo free emphasis and studies, that observers looked past the raw numbers, and took a good hard look at how teams played. A team surrendering 75 points per game must not be playing defense, or so we thought. Well, if their games go for 80 something possessions, maybe they do play good defense. Sixty points allowed per game means solid D, right? Not if the teams play for 55 possessions.

Following the first semifinal at the MAAC women’s tournament on Saturday, Canisius coach Terry Zeh praised his team’s defense. "We give up 57 points per game," Zeh said. "So we play some great defense." Zeh’s quote immediately sent yours truly to the calculator and statistics. The tempo free defensive breakdown bears Zeh’s assessment out.

	Record	Poss.	Def. Eff.	TO%
Canisius (overall)	23-7	68	.85	28
Canisius (MAAC)	14-4	67	.85	27

A major part of Canisius’ defensive package is forcing turnovers as the TO% implies.

Iona and Marist were warming up for the second semi at the Times Union Arena. The Canisus assistants Beth O’Boyle, Tara Fleming and Jen Gwin took their seats to scout. I had the figures jotted down on notebook paper and explained them. They found the breakdowns interesting and were thrilled to hear tempo free stats backed up the quality of their team’s defensive work. Zeh came out to join his assistants. I went over the notes with him and he was as proud and eager to share the findings with his team. "Offensively you are .97 PPP" I noted. Not great but a good figure. "Anything 1.00 or over is excellent," he said. Seems the Canisius mentor was doing a little tempo free studying of his own and utilizing it to monitor his team.

The final however had Marist cut down the nets as Canisius saw stifling defense from the other perspective.

	Score	Poss.	PPP
Marist	78	71	1.10
Canisius	62	71	0.89