Villanova by the Numbers

by Ray Floriani

New York City - The key to the game was defense. Baylor defeated Iowa 74-54 to win the National Invitation Tournament title at Madison Square Garden. While Baylor posted a glowing offensive efficiency, the foundation and framework for this championship originated on the defensive end.

	Offensive
	Eff.	Reb%
Iowa	78	38
Baylor	114	21

As impressive as the Baylor frontcourt performed during their New York stay, on both nights the Bears were defeated in offensive rebounding percentage. In fact Baylor coach Scott Drew was hard pressed to recall a time his team gave up 20 offensive boards, as they did in the finals, yet won by 20.

The rebounding deficit of Baylor was more than compensated by the outstanding job they did challenging, blocking and defending Iowa field goal attempts. Even after grabbing offensive boards the Hawkeyes struggled to finish, a testament to the Baylor frontcourt effectively guarding the rim.

Possessions vs. Plays: The old method used extensively by Dean Smith, calculated possessions by not subtracting an offensive rebound. In Smith's formula an offensive rebound started a new possession. Today that formula still has a usefullness as the calculation of Smith's gives us plays, rather than possessions. The formula:

FGA + (FTA * .475) + TO = Plays

The 'play' result:

	Offensive
	Plays	Eff.
Iowa	89	61
Baylor	70	106

Naturally, Iowa's 20-5 offensive rebounding edge provided more plays. Not converting on those added chances severely limited their 'play' efficiency. On the other hand, Baylor still put an impressive offensive efficiency for their plays.

	Eff.
	FG%
Iowa	30
Baylor	58

The Baylor defense and an offense that got on track in the second half. Bears were 22 of 33 (67%) from two point range on the evening. Iowa took 24 of their 69 attempts from three, hitting just five for a 20.8 percentage that reflects their eFG struggles.

For Baylor the celebration
began just after the final buzzer.

The individual honors:

Most Outstanding Player: Pierre Jackson, Baylor

All-Tournament:

Alex Len, Maryland
Roy Devyn Marble, Iowa
Cory Jefferson, Baylor
Isaiah Austin, Baylor

by Ray Floriani

New York City - BYU did what they wanted. In the end Baylor had too much and held on for a 76-70 victory in the NIT semifinals. The Bears will face Iowa, 71-60 winners over Maryland in the other semi, for the NIT championship.

In a 68 possession game, Baylor held theedge in offensive efficiency:In a 68 possession game, Baylor held the edge in offensive efficiency:

	Offensive
	Eff.	Reb%
BYU	103	36
Baylor	112	27

One of the priorities of BU coach Dave Rose was rebounding. Despite Baylor's size, Rose felt his team needed to compete and win the boards for a chance of getting to the final. In raw numbers BYU won that battle 40-33. The tempo free OREB percentage also saw the Cougars on top.

Both clubs took meticulous care of the ball with BYU showing a 16% turnover rate and Baylor an outstanding 10%. In the end it was a scoring drought on the part of the Cougars that allowed Baylor to gain some separation. A late BYU run sparked by the shooting of Matt Carfino (19 points and four threes the last five minutes) got it to a one possession game late but Baylor was able to maintain the edge.

The stat MVP.
Scott Drew's outstanding lead guard Pierre Jackson. The Baylor standout senior scored 24 points and handed out 10 assists. In efficiency (using the NBA model) Jackson had a game high 27 efficiency. The main blemishes on the efficiency side were 6 of 14 shooting and four turnovers. Given the time the ball is in his hands and his expert orchestrating of the offense, the four turnovers are generally 'excusable'. Especially against those 10 assists in 38 minutes of action.

As of late there has been much talk of Baylor. Most recently over the demise and upset of the defending national championship women's team. The national championship may return to Waco in the form of an NIT title. On Tuesday, Baylor did have a national champion grace the MSG hardwood.

Baylor twirler Allison Hatfield in action

Allison Hatfield a Baylor junior and baton twirler of international status, and a US champion, performed for the crowd. Her take on a first trip to MSG : "I have performed at Cowboys Stadium, Reliant Stadium and the Alamodome and there is nothing like being at the 'world's most famous arena'. The history and tradition here are fantastic."

The entire Baylor program is hoping to add to that tradition with a win on Thursday.

by Ray Floriani

New York City – The annual Maggie Dixon Classic gave us two interesting games. The 5,486 in attendance saw St. John’s put up a good battle before falling to number one Baylor in a game closer than the score hints. In game two, Tennessee, despite coming in with two losses, proved they can defend and are still an elite program, not to go away any time soon.

At halftime a travel team from Oakland, NJ got to play on the Garden floor.
Yours truly officiated them in a tournament a week earlier.

Baylor

73

59

St. John's

The possessions and offensive efficiency:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Baylor	65	112
St. John's	63	94

Of the Four Factors, two key areas saw the Bears excel. FT rate and offensive rebounding percentage. Baylor enjoyed 22-6% advantage in free throw rate (FTM/FGA) by virtue of hitting 14 free throws to St. John’s’ four. Red Storm, though, had only four attempts to Baylor’s 20. In the offensive rebounding department the advantage was a 43-31% difference in Baylor’s favor. Britney Griner, Baylor’s outstanding 6-8 junior center, had a game leading 13 rebounds. Three were offensive as Brooklyn Pope did the most damage for the Bears with five offensive rebounds.

St. John's coach Kim Barnes Arico
makes a point

Second game score, possessions and efficiency:

Tennessee

84

61

De Paul

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Tennessee	83	101
De Paul	81	75

Tennessee assistant Holly Warwick and Glory Johnson

Possession total shows us it was a bit of a faster pace. Very glaring number among those Four Factors, DePaul’s 30% turnover rate. Blue Demons had 24 turnovers and the 30% means almost one third of their offense resulted in the TO. Tennessee did have 19 of their own for a high 23% TO rate, a figure they will undoubtedly address in preparation for their next opponent.

A Look at Possessions and Usage
From Golden State of mind site there was a nice piece on advanced statistical breakdowns you can use analyzing the NBA. Actually, the metrics are applicable for the college game as well.

To calculate individual possessions you employ this formula:

Poss = FGA + (FTA * .475) + TO

The NBA free throw multiplier is .44, on the college level the accepted is .475. Once you have possessions of an individual player you divide that figure by team possessions. The final total is multiplied by 100 for the Usage percentage rate.

We will now take a look at the possessions and usage of the leading scorer for each team in the two games.

Player, Team	Poss	Pts.	Usage
B. Pope, Baylor	19	19	29
E. McPherson, SJU	15	23	24
J. Penny, De Paul	11	16	14
G. Johnson, Tenn	18	16	22

Taking it further let us look at the Baylor distribution. After all, they are the nation’s top ranked team:

Player	Poss	Pts.	Usage
B. Pope	19	19	29
B. Griner	14	17	17
O. Sims	14	8	17
K. Hayden	11	12	13
J. Madden	18	11	22
D. Williams	4	4	5
M. Robertson	0	0	0
S. Agbuke	1	2	1

The usage totals 98% because many of the usage figures contained percentage points, under .5, which I did not round up. St. John’s coach Kim Barnes Arico targeted Griner and point guard Sims for added defensive attention. She knew Pope and Madden would get additional and/or open looks but was willing to take the chance. The usage points out the impact the latter two had on the Baylor attack and outcome.

Griner entered the game with a 21% usage while Sims was right behind at 20%.
The team records:

Baylor	10-0
St. John's	5-5
Tennessee	8-2
De Paul	8-2

Baylor's Britney Griner graciously signs autographs

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY - The Maggie Dixon Classic at Madison Square Garden brought a few traditional powers and an new individual who utilized the Garden to introduce herself.

Brittney Griner, Baylor’s 6-8 freshman is actually known, largely due to her ability to dunk. Promotions and advertising leading up to the classic made mention of Griner and her ability to ‘slam it home’. Her performance on this rainy afternoon provided a debutant of sorts to the New York area. Griner and her teammates did not disappoint as Baylor defeated BC 68-55.

The possession numbers:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Baylor	67	102
Boston College	65	85

Griner’s line for the 39 minutes logged.

											Eff
FGM	FGA	FTM	FTA	Reb	Pts	Ast	TO	Blk	Stl	Eff	Min
12	24	1	3	7	25	1	2	3	1	21	0.539

Defense was the key. Baylor jumped out to a 29-19 halftime lead. BC enjoyed a 43-38 offensive rebounding edge but that was negated by an awful 28% turnover rate. Again the Baylor defense. As bad as BC’s care of the ball was, Baylor’s was good with a turnover rate of just 18%. Griner led all scorers with 25 while Stephanie Murphy paced BC with 18.

In the nightcap, Tennessee , the only team to defeat now 8-1 Baylor, faced Rutgers for the seventh consecutive year. The Lady Vols made it six straight over Rutgers with a 68-54 victory.

The possession numbers:

		Off.
	Poss.	Eff.
Tennessee	73	93
Rutgers	70	77

A little bit quicker on the pace for Rutgers who entered the game in the high sixties possession wise.

The four factors:

		FTA
	eFG%	FGA	OR%	TO%
Tennessee	42	52	35	26
Rutgers	41	12	24	24

Rutgers coach C. Vivian Stringer pointed out , without the use of tempo free statistics, the reasons why her club lost. Not getting to the line, lack of rebounding and carelessness with the ball (excessive turnovers). The Scarlet Knights trailed by 14 early, cut it to one with 13 minutes left but never got the lead as Tennessee went on another run that sealed it.

It is not a very athletic Lady Vols club but size is a key. Every starter is 6 feet or taller. The post, sophomore Kelley Cain, is 6-6. The size explains in part why Tennessee shot 33 free throws to Rutgers 13. On the other hand the Scarlet Knights all too often settled for jump shots. Senior guard Brittany Ray had a career high 29 points. Ray needed to produce as she was one of only four Rutgers players that scored a field goal.

Defense, a Rutgers staple , was evident as the Lady Vols’ eFG percentage barely cleared 40% and their turnover rate was 24%. Again it gets back to offense. Rutgers is glaringly inconsistent. Just days earlier they struggle to beat Prairie View A & Am at the RAC. Here, under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden they were giving undefeated Tennessee a run for the money. As mentioned Rutgers needs consistent help on the offensive end. Entering the game Rutgers’ offensive efficiency was 90 while the defense was a sterling 81. To add , or largely a reason for the less than spectacular OE was a turnover rate of 27%.

Ray has been consistent and productive all season. She needs consistent help. It could come from freshman Monique Oliver, a 6-2 forward/center, who scored 10 points in 26 minutes and battled well in the paint. It better come soon with Big East play fast approaching.

Shekinna Stricklen, a 6-2 sophomore guard adept at getting in the lane or hitting the jump shot, led Tennessee with 19 points. Glory Johnson, a 6-3 forward, added 10 points and pulled down 7 rebounds.

“We weren’t ready to play the first half so we had a ‘prayer meeting’ at halftime. Among the things we discussed were rebounding and boxing out.” - Tennessee coach Pat Summitt

“On defense we can dictate, on offense we cannot dictate…We play a hard game but there’s a big difference between playing hard and playing smart.” - Rutgers coach C. Vivian Stringer

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY -- Penn State earned their first NIT championship with a 69-63 victory over Baylor. Before the game decided to do a tempo free look at the two teams performances in the four NIT games leading to the championship.

			Opponents
	Poss.	PPP	PPP	TOR%
Baylor	64	1.21	1.04	19
Penn State	64	1.16	1.00	14

Offensive efficiency was the key to both. Defense? Not great by any stretch. Baylor’s perimeter skills and their extended zone which can disrupt passing lanes no doubt accounted for the opponent’s 19% To rate.

At the half Baylor had a 29-25 lead. Baylor’s first half eFG percentage was 52 to Penn State’s 41. The thing that helped the Lions only go into the break with a 4 point (29-25) deficit was rebounding and getting to loose balls. Penn State’s OREB pct was 39% in comparison to 14% for the Bears.

At the half

	Poss.	PPP	TOR%
Baylor	27	1.07	11
Penn State	26	0.96	12

The first few minutes of the second half saw the Lions come out strong. With 16 minutes to go it was 32 all. The game stayed even until midway through the final half. Penn State’s Danny Morrissey then buried consecutive Treys and Jeff Brooks added another. Suddenly the lead was nine. Baylor made a few runs but could never get the deficit under two possessions.

After hitting those threes to get the lead, the Lions went right back into the paint and utilized their inside strength. In the final minutes it was a case of hitting from the charity stripe to seal the verdict. The final numbers:

	Poss.	PPP	TOR%	OR%	eFG%
Baylor	63	1.00	19	25	52
Penn State	62	1.11	19	36	52

Penn State shot better in the second half. The Lions attempted 28 free throws to Baylor’s six. Drew spoke but did not complain about the free throw disparity. Simply it was a case of perimeter vs. paint. Baylor attempted 52% of their shots beyond the arc (to Penn State’s 45). The more significant number was offensive rebounding percentage. Especially in the first half the Lions extended possessions with their board work. Baylor also was in the fouling mode, to stop the clock and get the ball back, the final minutes.

Cornley led the Lions with 18 points 7 boards and earned MVP honors. LaceDarius Dunn paced Baylor with 18. Talor Battle also earned all tournament and had a solid 12 point 7 assist night for the full 40 minutes. He defended Curtis Jerrells of Baylor well holding him to 14 points on 5 of 16 shooting.

"This team was as committed as any team I’ve ever had...We were disappointed a few weeks ago by not being invited to the other tournament but our kids put that behind us right away and our goal was to win this thing." -- Penn State coach Ed DeChellis

"At the time I had no idea how big that shot would be." -- Talor Battle whose last second trey forced overtime in the first round win over George Mason.

"I think it’s remarkable. Coming in and their first year winning four games...Then being able to walk away being the all-time winningest group of seniors to set foot on Baylor’s campus. They have really raised the bar for the program." -- Coach Scott Drew on his seniors.

by Ray Floriani

NEW YORK CITY -- The final two teams are set. Baylor defeated San Diego State 76-62 and Penn State held on for a 67-59 win over Notre Dame in the NIT semifinals at Madison Square Garden. This guarantees, actually the Final Four field guaranteed, the winner will capture their first NIT title. The final numbers:

	Poss.	PPP	eFG%	TO%
Baylor	67	1.13	63	19
San Diego St.	68	0.91	52	28

What Baylor did to get to Thursday -- Shoot the ball. They literally attacked on the perimeter with an uncanny 11 of 22 from beyond the arc. LaceDarius Dunn had 23 points including 6 of 9 from three. Baylor’s Curtis Jerrells paced all scorers with 25. Jerrells is a problem for defenses as he is a deft penetrator as well as a perimeter threat. Baylor defended , in three NIT games their defensive PPP was over 1.00, largely be forcing 19 turnovers.

A good deal of action took place beyond the arc in this one. Baylor took 44% of their field goal attempts from three. The breakdown.

		3 Point
	FGA	FGA	%Att.
Baylor	50	22	44
San Diego St.	53	23	43

Baylor shot 50 percent (11 of 22) from three compared to the Azrecs’ 9 of 23 (39%) which contributed a good deal to the outcome.

The nightcap featured a physical battle with a good dose of transition.

	Poss.	PPP	eFG%	TO%
Penn State	66	1.02	46	9
Notre Dame	66	0.89	40	11

What Penn State did well -- Defend and hold on. The first half Notre Dame had a .58 PPP and eFG mark of 26%. The Irish missed shots but credit the tough Penn State defense. The second half ND found the range and Luke Harangody (17 points) came alive. Notre Dame also disrupted the Penn State offense with full court pressure and half court traps. The pressure didn’t show up in turnovers but it did force Penn State into rushed and/or ill advised shots.T he Irish had what was almost a twenty point deficit, down to a two possession game in the stretch. Penn State never lost the lead largely due to a big Jamelle Cornley (16 points) jumper with just under four to play.

Over 11,000 attended. Penn State had 18 busloads make the trip from Happy Valley and Joe PA, saluted with a standing ovation, was in attendance.