Monday, June 11, 2018
xG in the NHL
?@EvolvingWild put out their model, complete with the code, step by step. It is a fantastic presentation.
One thing to be careful about is the term "predict". There's a difference between trying to "predict" (actually the expected value) a goal given the shot location, and trying to predict the number of FUTURE goals a player, say PK Subban will score based on his shooting PATTERN.
At the PLAYER LEVEL, this is the difference between having a DESCRIPTIVE stat and a PREDICTIVE stat.
At the THAT-PUCK-LEVEL, it is simply the "expected value".
If you try to merge THAT-PUCK with THAT-PLAYER, then it gets into a bit of a mess, trying to figure out the expected value of that-puck shot by that-player... but in a descriptive sense. It may LOOK predictive, but the reality is that you never will have THAT-PUCK data to predict with. You can try to infer that-shot-pattern for that-player.
Hope all that made sense. It's clear in my head.
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