Thursday, September 11, 2014
WPA and timing
Patriot had a tweet last night, which I can't tell was sarcastic or sincere. Regardless, it's a valid point of view to discuss. In a game that you know ended 1-0, would you value a HR differently if it occurred in the 1st or 9th inning? And if you don't know how the game turned out, would you value that HR differently?
Before you answer that question, let's suppose that the game is 0-0 entering the bottom of the 9th, there's two outs, and the Phillies bring in Papelbon. The chance of the Phillies winning the game just before Papelbon is brought in is around 45%. He throws his first pitch, HR, game over. How much is that HR worth?
Now, suppose the Phillies did not bring in Papelbon. They let Cole Hamels ride it out. He gives up that 9th inning 2 out HR, game over. How much is that HR worth?
Let's say Cliff Lee gives up a HR on the first pitch of the game, and then is perfect the rest of the way (but so is his opponent Matt Cain). How much if Cliff Lee's HR worth?
***
If your answer is that all the HR are worth the same, then why wait to bring in Papelbon in the 9th inning? Couldn't a team instead simply START a game with a 1-inning reliever like Papelbon?
Ok, your turn...
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