Friday, December 13, 2013
WAR for pitchers on Fangraphs
Runs allowed includes the contributions of the fielders. Therefore, it is not "descriptive" to the pitcher's contributions, but rather, to the team's contributions while the pitcher was on the mound.
FIP takes an agnostic position on all balls in park (as well as baserunning events, and sequencing of events).
WAR (at Fangraphs), by not taking an explicit position on all of that, can either be said to be: (a) remaining agnostic (b) presuming average for all players regardless of what happened.
We wouldn't, for example, consider a pitcher's Won-Loss record to be "descriptive" of his contributions would we? No, because it's obvious how much of that is polluted by his team's offense, fielding, and bullpen.
A pitcher's ERA, while not as bad as his W/L record, still shares the same kind (if not degree) of pollution.
ERA takes an agnostic view on "pitching to the score". Therefore a WAR that doesn't including the timing of the runs (either in real-time, or even after the game is over), takes the same view as noted above (a) agnostic or (b) all average.?
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I posted this on Twitter, but, I think it applies here, since so many people think they know they are right, when the reality is that they only look at the issue through a single lens:
If you think you are right, keep working the problem until you know you are wrong. Englightenment will be your reward.
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