Monday, December 02, 2013
WAR versus ERA+ and IP
It's interesting how people will not look at WAR, but rely on ERA+ and IP, and not make the connection that they are one and the same.
Take as a for-instance, Mike Mussina. His ERA+ is 123 and he has nearly 3600 IP. How do you quickly convert that into WAR?
(5.5 - (450/ERA+)?) * (IP/9) /9
The "5.5" is replacement level runs allowed per 9IP. The "450" is 100 times the league average runs allowed per 9 IP. ERA+ is as you'd find on BR.com. The first "/9" is to convert IP to games. The second "/9" is to convert runs to wins. For Mussina, the above comes out to 82.
Maybe you don't like this particular construction. That's ok! Come up with one of your own. And apply it consistently to all pitchers. Don't be weak and say you do not look at WAR, and then say you do look at ERA+ and IP, and then... not tell us how you combine it.
WAR is telling you how it combines it. When you say you don't like WAR, you are saying you don't like the way ERA+ and IP are combined. But at the very least, then present the way you DO like to combine them.
For you Fangraphs fans, you'd do this instead:
(5.5 - (0.0450*ERA-)?) * (IP/9) /9
***
Maybe you don't like the "5.5" as the baseline comparison level. So, change it to 5.0 or 6.0 or whatever you want. That's really the only thing you can tweak really.
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