Sunday, January 03, 2016
Vote-splitting in the HOF
?In 1983, the top 12 votegetters ended up with a total of 6.9 votes per ballot (out of 8.36 votes per ballot). This was the culmination of the buildup since around 1972 as many great players started appearing on the ballots.
Since the birth of Mantle/Mays in 1931, who were voted in 1974 and 1979 respectively, the quantity of great players has jumped, with the non-white players being a substantial reason for it, not to mention expansion.
From 1984-2013, the top 12 votegetters averaged 5.3 votes per ballot. The backlog got cleared. However, and completely expected, ballot-gate returned in 2014, as a new record 7.01 votes per ballot went to the players who finished in the top 12. That was superceded the following year as a new record 7.05 votes per ballot went to the top 12. One would think that with seven players being elected in these two years, the backlog would get cleared.
However, the top 12 in the current 2016 ballot will end up with around 7.0 and 7.1 votes per ballot. With only Junior guaranteed, and Piazza a strong chance to be elected, with Bagwell having an outside shot, the backlog will just continue.
How bad will it get? In 1975, the 12th place finisher ended up with 32% of the votes, the highest such total ever. In 2016, we will demolish that as we expect the 12th place finisher to get close to 40% of the votes. And since the voters are limited to 10 spots, the vote-splitting will simply continue.
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