Saturday, March 11, 2017
Updated version of DRA
?First thing, kudos to Jonathan for being meticulous about it. Secondly, totally agree in terms of using FIP as the baseline, and he says it succinctly at the end. I would even use an additional baseline, and that is simply strikeouts minus "walks" per PA, where walks is BB-IBB+HBP. You'd be surprised (shocked?) at how well that does. Thirdly, the presentation of the three tests is perfect: (a) current RA9, (b) internal reliability, (c) future RA9
So, it's fascinating that DRA can (a) describe current RA9 as well as FIP AND (c) is slightly better than FIP in forecasting AND (b) does so by being more internally consistent (meaning it can better describe why it does so well). My GUESS is that it underweights HR and overweights SO, but can then counteract that with other data. So, for describing current RA9, it tried to do WORSE by changing the weights of HR and SO, but then is able to balance that out for current RA9 by using more inputs. And does so without affect future RA9. All the while making it more internally consistent. Just a guess, but that's what I'd do.
One thing this shows is how DIPS will survive (in the form of FIP). Remember, FIP is nothing more than DIPS, which means the whole idea of FIP I'd consider to be 99% Voros. Voros is the lawyer that created the DIPS argument, and I'm the paralegal that dots the i's and crosses the t's, with FIP. I'm sure Voros would like that analogy.
Anyway, the devil is in the details, and I'll be interested to learn about the specific pitchers, and where the value-added comes from.
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