Monday, May 10, 2021
Reverse Trout
Mike Trout has reverse platoon splits. This is highly unusual for someone with as much playing time as he’s had. Ichiro is one of the few batters with reverse platoon splits. Mike Trout, against RHP, is +2.2 runs per 100 pitches. This is the highest value in the pitch tracking era. I’ll remind you that Trout is a RHH. Against LHP he is +1.4 runs per 100 pitches. While high, it is not close to being a league-leading figure. J.D. Martinez leads at +2.4 runs per 100 pitches against LHP. He too is a RHH. Trout’s difference, a -0.8 runs per 100 pitches in the reverse direction is by far the league leading figure.
We can look at how Trout does against each pitch type in his career. Against LHP, when they throw a changeup, he is +3.6 runs per 100 pitches, an extremely high number. Against RHP, he is +2.9 runs per 100 pitches, also very high, but naturally not as high. As you would expect of a RHH, he does better against LHP than RHP. In this case, against the changeup, he is +0.7 runs per 100 pitches better.
He also has the platoon advantage with curveballs: +1.9 against LHP and +1.75 against RHP. So, a +0.15 with the platoon advantage.
But that’s where it ends. And pretty dramatically too. With the 4-seam fastball, he’s +1.0 against LHP but +1.9 against RHP. So, he ends up with a -0.9 runs per 100 pitches (the minus signifies that it’s a reverse platoon split).
Slider? +0.2 against LHP, +1.5 against RHP, or a -1.3 reverse platoon split on the slider.
Sinker? +1.0 against LHP, +2.7 against RHP, or a -1.7 reverse split.
Cutter: +1.5 against LHP, +3.4 against RHP, or a -1.9 reverse split.
Now, as I said, Trout is an exception, like Ichiro, when it comes to the reverse splits. How do all batters look? Here it is, since 2018, for LHH and RHH, against each pitch type in terms of their platoon advantage.
To read the first line:
RHH have a +0.74 runs per 100 pitches platoon advantage (they do better against LHP than RHP) against the Slider.
The big winner here is the Sinker for LHH: they demolish RHP. Matt Olson has faced the most sinkers among LHH: he’s -0.25 against LHP and +1.45 against RHP, for a +1.7 platoon advantage. Christian Yelich, +1.8. Michael Brantley, +1.0. Freddie Freeman, +2.7. Joey Votto has reverse splits: -0.5 runs. Cody Bellinger, +2.3. These are the most frequent LHH facing sinkers and they are, as a group, demolishing RHP.
Overall, you see that Sinkers and Sliders have the largest platoon advantage, followed by Cutters and Curves. The pitches that shows the least amount of platoon advantage are 4-seamers and changeups.
Next step? Control for the quality of pitcher. Is it possible that the LHH are feasting on RHP sinkers because those happen to be poor pitchers overall, who happen to throw disproportionately sinkers? Hard to believe, but, we’ll leave no stone unturned. Or if I’m lucky, an Aspiring Saberist will take this to the next level.
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