Friday, July 26, 2013
Random Variation Library
What a great idea to index a bunch of articles on random variation. In this case, they are all based on hockey, but it would apply to any sport.
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One of the interesting ones in hockey are shots and goals. The traditional way to track plus/minus is with goals. If you have a high-scoring sport like NBA, that's alot better than for low-scoring leagues like NHL. You can go several games without being on the ice for a goal scored (or allowed), just by bad (or good) luck.?
But with shots for / allowed while on the ice, that's a different story. That's because there are roughly ten shots for every goal scored. (And it's even higher ratio if you focus on 5-on-5 play only.) While goals are more reliable than shots in terms of talent, shots makes up for it by its sheer quantity.
At some point (think years), goals overtakes shots in terms of reliability (since good shots aren't being differentiated by bad shots). In some shot analysis, the location and type of shot is tracked (think UZR), so that makes context-specific shots more valuable to know. (But, like with baseball tracking, there is a systematic bias in tracking shots.... yes, I'm looking at you Rangers scorers... this has been true from at least 10-15 years ago when I was doing hockey analysis, and from my reading from current analysts, it's still the case.)
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