Saturday, December 21, 2013
Predicting huge comebacks
?More interesting data as to the idea that models can't properly estimate comebacks in extreme conditions. In the 109 games where the team was favored to win 51% to 90% of the games (average expected win rate of .723), they actually won .716. That difference is less than 0.2 SD, which, well, that's called nailing it.
In the other 111 games where the odds of winning was expected to be greater than 90% (average expectation of .982), they actually only won .919 times. That's either 2.5 or greater than 4 SD depending on how you calculate it. In any case, it's big enough to make us reconsider the extreme game, that maybe our win probability charts don't work. And they don't work because the whole strategy has changed.
The easiest way to see it is by looking at the NHL, where teams can pull their goalies. While their goals allowed rate shoots way way up, their goal scoring rate also shoots up (but not anyway near as much). So, why do the teams do it? Because whether they lose by 1 or lose by 2, it doesn't matter. So, it's a high-risk, high-reward play, and so, when you try to figure out the chances of winning, you have to modify your charts to include this change in scoring environment.
It's possible a similar kind of idea applies in NFL as well. If you are losing bigtime, well, the trailing team will be taking far more risks. And those plays will eventually pay off, just a bit more, than if they simply played their normal way.
We see it also in MLB in the bottom of the 9th, where my win probability charts do not work. I don't know anything about NBA, but I presume a same scenario applies there as well.
So, I'd like to see the work in the article applied to the other sports. But rather than 4th quarter, I'd like to see it much more closer to the end of game. In hockey, it's easy: look at the last 2 minutes, or the last five minutes. In baseball, the bottom of the 9th, or if you want, the top of the 8th. In football, I'd say the last 3 minutes, maybe the last 5 minutes. NBA? I'm guessing the last 3 minutes.
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