Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Porcello v Verlander X3
This is a link to the one I just posted:
?As you can see, when we adjust Verlander’s WAR, we shouldn’t adjust it based on the fact that the Tigers cost him some ten hits, but rather adjust him so that the Tigers fielders actually HELPED him to two hits.
...with a healthy level of comments from MGL among others:
It looks like your assumption is that pitchers with low BABIP necessarily had very good defense behind them regardless of how good the team’s defense was for the year and vice versa if a pitcher had a high BABIP. So it’s a Bayesian type adjustment, which is indeed correct. Also if B-R is using team DRS to adjust pitcher WAR without regressing that DRS they are making a mistake. Same with using UZR.
This is Poz's article:
For one thing, I think it’s quite likely that Detroit played EXCELLENT defense behind Verlander, even if they were shaky behind everyone else. I’m not sure how you can expect a defense to allow less than a .256 batting average on balls in play (the second-lowest of Verlander’s career and second lowest in the American League in 2016) or allow just three runners to reach on error all year (the lowest total of Verlander’s career).
This is Bill James:
The logic of the Baseball Reference WAR analysis is that, given the same defense behind them, the same park, Justin Verlander WOULD HAVE allowed significantly fewer runs than Rick Porcello. The question this pushes us to is, Is this actually a reasonable thing to believe? No, it isn’t. Maybe it is a reasonable adjustment in theory, I don’t know. Maybe if we compared 100 different pitchers, this would be a useful and instructive adjustment in the other 98 cases; I don’t know. But we’re talking about this case.
***
In Bill's article he also had a preamble about pitcher Wins and how they are used in Cy Young voting. It's Classic Bill, which means he was able to restructure a complex topic into something easy to grasp. The whole thing is a great read. His conclusion:
The Won-Lost record was no longer the king of the library. From 1992 to 2005 other statistics were basically AS important in the Cy Young voting as the won-lost record, and since 2006 the other stats have been MORE important than the won-lost record.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 150 pages 1 2 3 > Last ›Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date
FORUM TOPICS
Jul 12 15:22 MarcelsApr 16 14:31 Pitch Count Estimators
Mar 12 16:30 Appendix to THE BOOK - THE GORY DETAILS
Jan 29 09:41 NFL Overtime Idea
Jan 22 14:48 Weighting Years for NFL Player Projections
Jan 21 09:18 positional runs in pythagenpat
Oct 20 15:57 DRS: FG vs. BB-Ref
Apr 12 09:43 What if baseball was like survivor? You are eliminated ...
Nov 24 09:57 Win Attribution to offense, pitching, and fielding at the game level (prototype method)
Jul 13 10:20 How to watch great past games without spoilers