Friday, September 20, 2013
Pettitte’s missing WAR
?Pettitte has 60 rWAR in 3300 IP. That's regular season IP. He also has another 277 IP in which he pitched better (same ERA, but because it's tougher competition, he ends up actually having pitched better, say about 20% better).
So: 60/3300 x 277 x 1.2 = 6. I estimate he has generated about 6 WAR in the post-season.
I personally would value the post-season at around 3X the regular season. Maybe 2X for the early round, 3X for the conference championship, and 5X for the World Series. So, those 6 post-season WAR I would count at around 15-20 WAR.
Therefore, his 60 rWAR for the regular season, which makes him a gray-area HOF catapults him into the 75-80 WAR level. Yes, he's in.
***
David, Sean: it's time to start counting the post-season for WAR.
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