Monday, December 08, 2014
Path to Game Score 2.0 - part 1 of 3
?This one is going to be an easy one. If we think of Game Score along a wins scale, where "50" means 50% or .500, then 60 would mean .600, or +.10 wins above average, which is equivalent to +1 run above average. That is, going from 50 to 60 (a gain of 10 points) would be based on being 1 run above average. Hence, a 10:1 ratio of Game Score points to runs.
If the league average runs allowed per 9 IP (RA9) is 4.32, we'd assign a value of "50" to that. And an RA9 of 3.32 would be "60", and 2.32 would be "70". And going the other way, 5.32 would be a "40", and so on. Essentially 1 run is 10 Game Score points.
Naturally, we don't want to assign a starting pitcher a Game Score of 50 if he manages to be league-average while throwing 2 innings. Enter: WAR. Rather than make the starting point a "50", we can make it something lower, and get up to a 50 with a league average performance. The WAR level for a pitcher is roughly 5.40 RA9, meaning 5.4 runs per 27 outs, or 0.2 runs per out. That is, each out advances us forward 0.2 runs, while each run allowed moves us back 1 run.
Or, in the above scale of 10:1, an out is worth +2 points while a run is worth -10 points. Since a league average starting pitcher would give up around 2.88 runs per 6IP, he would earn +36 points for his 18 outs and lose 28.8 points for his 2.88 runs, for a total of +7.2 points. Since we want him to be at 50, that would mean the replacement level point would be 42.8 game score points, which we'll round to 43.
A 9-inning shutout would therefore give us 54 points for the outs, no penalty for the runs, and a starting point of 43, for a total of 97 points. In order to get close to a 0, you'd have a pitcher with 3 innings (+18 points) giving up 6 runs (-60 points), which when added to our starting point of 43 gives us 1 point.
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