Monday, September 03, 2018
Lead runner or go for 2?
Starting State:
0.829 Bottom of 9th, 1 out, bases loaded, tie game
Ending State, option A, throw home:
(1) 0.658 Bottom of 9th, 2 outs, bases loaded, tie game
(2) 1.000 walkoff slideoff
Ending State, option B, go for 2:
(1) 0.500 Extra Innings
(2) 1.000 walkoff slideoff
Option A: If you throw home, let's say you have a 73% chance of getting the runner. Home team chance of winning is 0.750
Option B: If you go for 2, and you have a 50/50 chance to turn 2, that's a 0.750 chance of winning for home team.
On the other hand, suppose chance of getting lead runner is 85%, then option A is 0.709. If you have a 59/41 chance to turn 2, that's an equivalent 0.705.
In other words, if you have about a 25% more chance of getting the runner on 3rd as you have at turning 2, it's breakeven what you do.
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