Saturday, January 30, 2016
How much is a top prospect worth?
According to Chris Mitchell, the ?top 100 prospects are expected to generate over 600 wins during their pre-free agency years, or an average of 6 WAR. A pre-free agent player's career probably costs about 30 cents on the dollar, meaning that 2 of those 6 WAR are being paid at the full price, and the other 4 WAR is surplus. (A 6 WAR player is the 36th best prospect according to Chris.)
Suppose you have a veteran player, one year to go until free agency. Those guys get paid 60 to 80 cents on the dollar. If your superstar player is expected to get 6 WAR in his last year, 4 of those wins are being paid the full price, while the other 2 WAR is surplus.
You can see therefore that the average top 100 prospect is worth about twice as much as a superstar free agent in his last year. According to what we can infer from Chris anyway.
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