Thursday, August 13, 2015
Game Theory on pitch selection
?Good stuff from Neil. He has a good foundation for the framework. As the commenters pointed out, the count will matter especially, and the rest of the game state (which you can approximate through Leverage Index) will matter to some extent.
For example, no one swings at 3-0 pitches, so, all those pitches are noise. At 3-1 counts, pitchers are highly incentivized to throw strikes, and so, will go with a fastball, even if that's not necessarily their most effective pitch in a "neutral" count. At 0-2, different pitchers will respond very differently. A fastball just outside the strike zone (chase-able at 0-2) is likely more similar to a curveball in the strike zone than a fastball down the middle (in terms of effectiveness). But Neil would lump in all 0-2 fastballs together. And worse, he lumps in all fastballs across all counts. Which makes the ultimate conclusion irrelevant.
While I like the basic idea that Neil has, in terms of laying out the groundwork, the house needs a frame to make it effective. And we're a long way to get there, based on what has been shown.
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