Thursday, April 18, 2013
Game Score leaderboards
Matt gives us the leaderboards for Bill's Game Score, and my 4 different versions.
He does something interesting though: he simply adds up each score by pitcher for the season. No dividing by number of starts. No averaging. Just a straight addition. So, the league leader in any of the version ends up with a score like 2077 or something.
Now, if you think about the scale of game score, the average is 50, and the scale is created to be 0 to 100, and to mirror win%. That is a game score of 75 means that you'll win 75% of the time, or, 0.75 wins. So, if Kershaw ends up with a Game score of 2077 for the season, then that implies 20.77 wins. That is, 21 wins.
(It's not exactly like W/L because of the no-decisions.)
You could therefore have the flip-side of 100 minus Game Score for each start. Kershaw had 33 starts, and if his Game Score suggests 21 wins, then it would suggest 12 losses. Hence, his Game Score translates to 21-12, which is certainly much more appealing to look at than "2077".
Anyway, the power of Game Score is really at the single-start level. If you start to aggregate it like this, well, you are simply converting his RA9 (or FIP or whatever) into its presumed W/L record. Which is fine, but you wouldn't necessarily have to go through each Game Score to get there.
So, what you want to see if say Verlander is streaky or not, does he have alot of bad games, etc. Things like that, at the single-game level. Aggregation hides all that.
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