Thursday, April 04, 2013
Game-level pitching accomplishments
Matt brings up this line, showing two players with the same WAR:
Matt Harrison: 5.2 IP, 6 R, 5 ER, 9 K, 3 BB, 0 HR, 0.2 WAR Stephen Strasburg: 7 IP, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 K, 0 BB, 0 HR, 0.2 WAR
The Fangraphs version of WAR ignores all non-HR batted balls. Clearly, FIP can't be used as the sole determinant of pitching accomplishment at the game level.
However, I don't think it would take me too much time to find two pitching performances where both players had 4 runs charged to them in 7 innings, while one did it with 9K and 1 BB on 5 hits, while another did it with 3K, 4BB and 9 hits. And the Baseball-Reference version of WAR would be identical for those two pitchers, because rWAR ignores all the components that lead to those runs (basically). So, RA9 can't be used as the sole determinant of pitching accomplishment at the game level either.
The problem we have is the leap of faith from ASSIGNING recorded events to the RESPONSIBILITY of those recorded events. The pitcher is one guy on the field. The most important guy on the field, no doubt, but still not the only guy on the field.
When you focus on FIP, you ignore all the non-HR batted balls and all the sequencing of events (including the sequencing of BB, K, HR). Clearly, the pitcher is not only involved, but SOMEWHAT (but not totally) responsible for those events. When you focus on RA9, you ignore all of the fielder involvedment, and their somewhat (but not total) responsibility for those events.
The truth, like all things, is somewhere in the middle. And the problem is that not only do we not know where that middle is, but the middle changes based on whether you are looking at things at the PA-level, the game-level, the season-level, and the career-level.
If you want to think through the problem, then you'll come up with a very nuanced and complex solution. I'd love to read the results of your hard work.
If you don't want to think through the problem, then take 50% of fWAR and 50% of rWAR and watch twenty ballgames with the rest of your time.
And the same goes for forecasting.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 150 pages 1 2 3 > Last ›Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date
FORUM TOPICS
Jul 12 15:22 MarcelsApr 16 14:31 Pitch Count Estimators
Mar 12 16:30 Appendix to THE BOOK - THE GORY DETAILS
Jan 29 09:41 NFL Overtime Idea
Jan 22 14:48 Weighting Years for NFL Player Projections
Jan 21 09:18 positional runs in pythagenpat
Oct 20 15:57 DRS: FG vs. BB-Ref
Apr 12 09:43 What if baseball was like survivor? You are eliminated ...
Nov 24 09:57 Win Attribution to offense, pitching, and fielding at the game level (prototype method)
Jul 13 10:20 How to watch great past games without spoilers