Thursday, February 21, 2013
Fans v Steamer Forecasts
Dave makes an important point that the Fan forecasts need to be deflated.
I actually do that with the Fans Scouting Report as well. The ?average talent evaluation on the 1-5 scale must be 3 by definition, but it comes in at 3.3 every year. Fans basically may understand the little bits and pieces, but they don't know how to put them together without bias. So, I actually deflate those numbers BEFORE showing it to the reader. I think David at Fangraphs must do this adjustment. Otherwise, people may not realize this bias, run off with it, and forecast the average team with 88 wins or something. Whether the adjustment should happen at the rate level or the PA/IP level or both, I don't know. But, it should be easy enough to test. Dave Allen might have even done it.
Anyway, the other part that Dave C points out is that there is a further age bias, that fans are overenthused with young guys, and underenthused with old guys. And he makes the claim compared to Steamer. Except. Well, except no one has shown that Steamer is not biased itself.
So, in order to test this, all you have to do is take out the 2012 forecasts from last year (unadjusted), then compare the WAR and WAR/PA (and WAR/IP) numbers for the four groups of players that Dave identified, and see how/where the Fans need adjusting, and if Steamer is biased.
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