Friday, August 23, 2013
Explain FRA to me
I have nothing good to say about Fair RA. Momma told me I should stop there, but, who listens to their mother really?
***
While the idea behind it seems reasonable, the results are frankly ludicrous (see the whole thread, but especially the comments starting at comment 21 if you are short on time).?
So in the end, I can't explain the methodology nor the results. And yet FRA is the central component to WARP. Outside of Colin, I doubt there's a single person at BPro that can explain FRA that can be understood by any one of us. (That's a challenge. Crickets will be here until it's taken on.) But it is being referenced by its authors, most visibly in their book (where they highlight the metric by showing that Doc Halladay wasn't as good a pitcher as the rest of us think).
The thing is that FRA has been around for three years now (Happy belated Birthday!), and I haven't seen any effort at all in moving the understandinging of the metric forward. It simply exists, and it is simply being referenced. I think outside of the original article, no article has ever been devoted to it since. The sellers can't sell the metric, and the buyers aren't buying the metric. So, why does it even exist?
SIERA in contrast made a splash at BPro when it came out, and Matt had several articles that delved into SIERA and what made it tick. And almost as quickly, it was gone, in a takedown by Colin himself. (SIERA survives at Fangraphs.)
The last time I took out the daggers was to eviscerate the PECOTA percentiles. They were wrong from the start, and they were wrong for several years. And yet, there they stood, existing without explanation. Until Colin proved that they were wrong.
When will the FRA obituary be finally written? Until then, someone, anyone, explain FRA to me, in a way that I can explain it to someone else.
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