Monday, April 08, 2013
DIPS and BABIP
Pizza gives it a once-over. For those new to the whole debate, you may find this piece interesting (solvingdips.pdf).
The issue with focusing on BABIP is that it's half of a bigger equation. If you do BABIP, then you MUST do SLGBIP (or, basically, just do wBABIP, which is the wOBA version of BABIP). On top of which, you must include DP (and reach on error... anyone who ignores reach on error is doing it wrong).
A GB pitcher has a higher BABIP than a FB pitcher. However, for each BIP, the FB pitcher will give up more extrabase hits. And for each BIP, the GB pitcher will get more DP. In the end, what we REALLY care about is the run value. And the run value is identical for GB and FB (excluding HR).
In order to get a balanced view, you need to look at run value per BIP. And the significance there will shrink. This is why something as simple as K minus BB+HB-IB per PA works. It's because whatever truth you do find in BABIP, there's a counter-truth that reduces its significance.
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