Wednesday, July 02, 2014
Denard Span v Danny Espinosa
Dave suggests that it's an easy call. Their defensive value is a wash, which just leaves the offensive value, and that gap is 1.5 wins per 162 games.
In order to make that up, you have to believe that Zimmerman can gain that back on the defensive side? and/or on the offensive side. Who knows, maybe Zimm feels better in his head at the plate, when he knows he'll be out in the outfield. Could that be worth half a win? Sure, I guess. And who knows, maybe Zimm who was able to leverage his talents at 3B is now exposed at 3B, and can actually stand out in the outfield.
Look no further than Ryan Braun who was observed at -38 runs per 162 games at 3B and maybe we can regress that to -25 runs. But in the outfield, he has -12 runs in defensive value. So, that's a 13 run gain. There's your other win and then some.
Who knows, maybe Zimm will follow the Braun path to success.
Note: when I talk about "defense", I mean comparing his fielding to the average at his position, plus the positional value. If you don't understand the concept, ask before commenting. Ideally, your defensive value doesn't change much as you move position to position. It'll change a little, especially if you go between two positions that are very different (SS and 1B). But by and large, it shouldn't change much. And if it does, it likely means that you have a particular trait that was hugely exposed in one position that can be hidden at another position. Ryan Braun's throwing accuracy to a stationary fielder (1B) would be an example.
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