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Monday, June 16, 2014

wOBA and BaseRuns

By Tangotiger 11:16 AM

This article does a good job in showing that linear methods (like wOBA and its inspiration of Linear Weights) can't be used for Teams.  wOBA-squared does a much better job.

In any case, the answer is BaseRuns.  For teams (and pitchers) use BaseRuns.  For hitters, use wOBA.  For hitters in a particular environment, use the "Theoretical Team" construction and a "with or without you" process (google Patriot and that term, and you'll get what you need).?


#1    Tangotiger 2014/06/16 (Mon) @ 13:08

For those a little late to the party, here’s a quick recap.

BaseRuns
= Baserunners x ScoreRate
+ HR

where Baserunners excludes HR

ScoreRate
= goodStuff / (goodStuff + Outs)

That’s the basic way it works.

***

Baserunners is proportionate to OBP x PA. 

ScoreRate is somewhat proportionate to OBP.

We can see therefore that BaseRuns is proportionate to OBP^2 x PA.

***

If you want to do it per 27 batting outs, then PA = 27/(1-OBP).  (Let’s forget about baserunner outs.)

***

Hence, runs is proportionate to OBP^2 / (1-OBP)

***

If you use wOBA in the numerator, you will see that the exponent that fits better is going to be around 1.5.

***

Anyway, that’s the basic idea.  Now someone else can try to refine it. 

This should be enough for your mathgasm of the day.


#2    Jeremy Williams (Epee9) 2014/06/16 (Mon) @ 21:06

Rather than using the (weighted) arithmetic mean of players’ OBP/wOBA (which would be the same as the corresponding stat of the team), wouldn’t it be better to use the (weighted) geometric mean?  On the variation scale of MLB, it probably doesn’t matter much, but it should add more runs to increase the OBP of your 7/8 hitters (or your pitchers!) than to increase the top of the lineup by an equal amount.

The easy way to do the calculation would be to do an average (weighted arithmetic mean) of the logs of wOBA, then exponentiate back.


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