Monday, June 16, 2014
wOBA and BaseRuns
This article does a good job in showing that linear methods (like wOBA and its inspiration of Linear Weights) can't be used for Teams. wOBA-squared does a much better job.
In any case, the answer is BaseRuns. For teams (and pitchers) use BaseRuns. For hitters, use wOBA. For hitters in a particular environment, use the "Theoretical Team" construction and a "with or without you" process (google Patriot and that term, and you'll get what you need).?
For those a little late to the party, here’s a quick recap.
BaseRuns
= Baserunners x ScoreRate
+ HR
where Baserunners excludes HR
ScoreRate
= goodStuff / (goodStuff + Outs)
That’s the basic way it works.
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Baserunners is proportionate to OBP x PA.
ScoreRate is somewhat proportionate to OBP.
We can see therefore that BaseRuns is proportionate to OBP^2 x PA.
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If you want to do it per 27 batting outs, then PA = 27/(1-OBP). (Let’s forget about baserunner outs.)
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Hence, runs is proportionate to OBP^2 / (1-OBP)
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If you use wOBA in the numerator, you will see that the exponent that fits better is going to be around 1.5.
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Anyway, that’s the basic idea. Now someone else can try to refine it.
This should be enough for your mathgasm of the day.