Tangotiger Blog

Saturday, February 27, 2021

The Five Pillars of WAR

As we know, WAR is perfect in its framework. Here I’ll describe the five pillars of WAR:

1. component driven
2. relative to average
3. adjust for playing context (roles/responsibilities)
4. adjust for playing environment (site/era)
5. average relative to a minimal baseline

Let’s take each one at a time.

1. Component driven means that you are able to keep splitting up what you are measuring into components. The more you can keep breaking it up into its components, the better. In baseball, that could be batting and baserunning. It could mean batting by swinging v batting by taking. It could mean putting in play v not putting in play. Or any combination thereof. We want components because we want to be able to figure out the contributions of the player to those components. And by contributions I mean influence or impact, not simply incidental. Just because you can identify a player being on the field or even involved in a play doesn’t mean that he had any impact on the play.
2. Relative to average is important, as this sets the context. It also keeps in a natural guardrail. You don’t want everyone to be above average. Having this baseline is critical. Whether average is in respect to your teammates and/or opponents depends on what you are doing.
3. The playing context further establishes your role and responsibilities within the game. Playing SS or DH is very different. Starting pitcher and reliever is very different. This goes beyond just baseball. Everything I’ve discussed and will discuss applies to ANY sport. You can create WAR for anything, and they all have to adhere to these five pillars.
4. The playing environment determines the scoring environment. Coors in the 1990s is different from the Astrodome in the 1970s. Hitting against Pedro is different than hitting against the emergency starter.
5. Finally, once you’ve established everything you need relative to the average, we have to assign value to being average. Being average is GOOD. Being average doesn’t mean being 0. It means being 0 above average. The absolute value of 0 is what we call the replacement-level player, or readily available talent. Whatever value that player provides, that becomes our zero level. If a replacement level pitcher allows 6.0 runs per 9 IP (RA/9) and the average pitcher allows 4.7 RA/9, then we set the zero baseline at 6.0 RA/9. And so an average pitcher is worth +0 RA/9 above average or 1.3 RA/9 above replacement.

So there you go. If your model adheres to these five pillars, you’ve met the minimum requirements for being a WAR model. In any sport. Of course, it has to functionally make sense, but at least you’ve got the foundation in place.