Tangotiger Blog

Monday, September 28, 2020

Cy Young Predictor 2020

​As you know, the simple Cy Young tracker has done very well since its start several years back.  The system is simple enough:

IP/2 - ER + SO/10 + W

Easy enough to commit to memory, and clear in what it's doing.  Innings, earned runs, strikeouts, and wins.  Each voter may use other metrics like WAR from Fangraphs or Reference, they may use shutouts, or FIP, or complete games, or quality of opponent.  But those are tertiary level considerations, and they all end up canceling out, as all the voters are focusing, at a minimum, on the big 4.

This year will be a challenge, since a third of a season is not enough for the system to separate players.  Normally, we'd get 2-4 points of separation.  We can't get that this year for the most part.  Anyway, time for the predictions.

AL

1. Bieber.  He's so far ahead of everyone, it'd be a shock if he's not unanimous.  He leads in ERA, Wins, Strikeouts, and second in Innings.  Regardless of whatever point system I'd create, he'd end up number 1.
2. Gerrit Cole
3. Keuchel
4. Maeda
5. Bassitt

After that we have Lynn and Ryu.  Keuchel over Maeda is a bet on ERA over strikeouts.  Bassitt over Lynn is a bet on ERA over strikeouts and innings.  Lance Lynn will be the biggest test to the system.  Any time you have an extreme case like Lynn, leading the league in innings, but with a fairly high ERA for a Cy Young candidate, it's a test as to whether the system overweights or underweights a category.  

It would seem that both Keuchel and Bassitt have to both appear together.  It's just hard to choose one over the other.  With Bieber and Cole, that leaves one spot.  And so, more likely Maeda over Lynn.  As usual, no reliever will make an appearance in the top 5.

NL

1. Darvish 
2. Bauer.  They are neck and neck, both at 38 points.  The difference is a rounding error, but an error in favor of Yu.  Tertiary level stats like FIP favors Yu, so that's my guess.  But, this is a 52/48 kind of guess.
3. deGrom
4. Lamet.  Another neck and neck, and they are even closer than Darvish/Bauer.  In this case, even though the rounding error is in favor of Lamet, I'm betting that voters will use deGOAT as the tie-breaker.
5. Burnes.