Saturday, January 09, 2016
Cody Allen v Aroldis Chapman
?Cody Allen led the league in FIP, while having the 7th worst BABIP. Aroldis was very close to Allen in both metrics.
Allen however was far far worse with men on base. His FIP with bases empty was 1.16, while with runners on base it was 2.67. By luck or talent, he did perform much worse with men on base.
His team's BABIP with Allen on the mound was .309 with bases empty and .377 with men on base. In this case, we don't know whether to hold Allen or his fielders (or both) responsible for the abysmal performance with men on base.
Naturally, all that leads to lots of runs scoring, far more than would be expected if you just look at his seasonal line. We just don't know whether to hold Allen or his fielders accountable for all those excess runs.
Chapman also had a much better FIP with bases empty than men on base. However, the Reds BABIP was much lower with men on base than bases empty when Chapman was on the mound (.367 v .295). As a result, much fewer runs scored than if you just look at his seasonal lines. We just don't know how much to credit Aroldis and how much to credit his fielders.
And so the FIP v BABIP debate continues, as every year, we find more pitchers in this boat, always trying to figure out how much to hold the pitcher and his fielders accountable.
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