Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Chemistry
Pizza Cutter looks at the effect of performance on the team in various combinations of turnover. And it follows the pattern you might think in real-life:
- if everyone is new, team does great
- if there's very little turnover, the holdovers do good, while the new guy suffers
Basically, decide on whether you want the core intact, or you just want to start over. What I like about this is that it kind of goes with our expectation, but now we can see the magnitude of this effect. It should be our prior that an effect DOES exist, in whatever we do, because we are dealing with humans. Measuring the degree of an effect is really what our job is.
| High Turnover | Low Turnover | |
| Player was here last year | 2.46% | 2.59% |
| Player was not here last year | 2.72% | 2.03% |
***
Little technical note: in order to put pitchers on the same scale? as non-pitchers, this little trick helps:
NewScale = (3*G + IP) / 2
Whether 3 or 3.5 or 4 works better, whether we should multiply by 0.5 or 0.4 or whatever, I'll leave to you guys to figure out. And naturally, it would be different for each era.
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