Friday, August 28, 2015
Cy Young shakeout continues
?In the NL, Greinke is "on pace" to trounce all comers in ERA. His top contenders are Kershaw, but since Greinke is set to finish ahead of Kershaw in both Wins and ERA, Greinke has enough to finish ahead of Kershaw. Guys with more wins than Greinke, and so, needing to go to the Cy Young Points are Arrieta, Bumgarner, Cole, and Wacha. But with the ERA lead, none of them are serious challengers. So, Greinke is the leading contender, probaby at 50% right now.
For 2nd place, Kershaw is slightly ahead of Arrieta in ERA and well behind in wins. But Kershaw's huge lead in K will likely be the push based on past Cy voting, to finish at #2. He probably has a 20% chance at Cy. Arrieta is the leader in ERA and W among the remaining pitchers, putting him at #3, probably a 15% chance at Cy. Cole, Scherzer, and Bumgarner are the other contenders, each at 5%. deGrom is the only remaining pitcher potentially in the mix as a down-ballot vote.
In the AL, Keuchel is the leading contender, being 2nd in ERA and 1st in wins. David Price is a shade behind Keuchel, and Gray is in the mix. After that, nobody has a real shot. So, Keuchel at 40%, Price at 35%, and Gray at 20%, with 5% split between Sale and Archer.
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