Monday, August 31, 2015
Cy Young and one game
?Steamer at Fangraphs has Arrieta forecasted for a 2.29 ERA and Greinke at 1.86. If Arrieta gives up 2 runs less than forecasted, and Greinke gives up 2 runs more than forecasted, then it becomes a 50/50 shot between Arrieta and Greinke for the Cy. Kershaw has almost no chance at besting Greinke, since he's forecasted well enough behind Greinke in both W and ERA. But Kershaw has a chance to finish ahead of Arrieta. It's one of those crazy a > b > c > a situations. Anyway, I'll go with 40% Greinke, 30% Arrieta, 25% Kershaw, 5% Cole + Scherzer + Bumgarner + deGrom.
In the AL, Keuchel (40%) ahead of Price (35%) ahead of Gray (20%), 5% Sale+Archer.
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