Tuesday, May 21, 2013
Boards: End game effects in NBA
Discuss this in our forumsWe have three methods to determine how to convert points to wins (in any sport). The easy way is to run a regression of points differential and wins over .500. The even easier is to just compare the average home win% to the average home point differential. And the hardest, but a pure common sense approach as shown by Phil. You do that in MLB, and you get roughly 10 runs per win. You do that in NHL, and you'll get around 6. I think it also worked in NFL.
But, the common sense approach does NOT work in NBA. When Straight Arrow reader TomC looked at NBA scores through the third quarter, all three approaches DID work. This therefore means that there's something about end-of-game scoring that messes us up. It would be interested if someone out there has scores by the minute to see at which point it breaks down. Last minute? Last two? Last 30 seconds?
Here's an excellent discussion, and I encourage people to post there.
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