Wednesday, September 21, 2016
Bill James new Season Score
?Much like Game Score, Bill has a Season Score. He tinkers with it, as he should. After all, we learn new things, as new data comes in. We have to revisit what we do. And when he ran the latest version, he compared it to Cy Young voting, and it seemed to do pretty well. Over the weekend I'll do a comparison of his new Season Score to his old Cy Young predictor. I have no doubt that it'll do better, at least for the present era. To that end, here is the Season Score for the 2016 pitchers:
- 293 Lester
- 279 Scherzer
- 276 Cueto
- 271 (RP) Jansen
- 245 Bumgarner
- 242 Hendricks
I should point out that had I run this yesterday, Scherzer would have been #1. Much like my Cy Young predictor, there's a daily game of leap frog. We have the same top 5 starting pitchers, just not in the same order. Cueto v Hendricks is really the difference in the system. That plus he has relievers. I doubt Jansen finishes anything close to that, but has Britton in the mix:
- 304 (RP) Britton
- 295 Porcello
- 258 Happ
- 246 Sale
- 235 Kluber
He's got Happ in there, while I have him below Kluber. But he does get Britton in the mix, possibly too high? Britton and Jansen are pretty closely linked, so whatever changes you make to the system on one you do on the other.
Anyway, it's possible that the weight for relievers is too high, and this weekend I'll take a look at that. What's interesting is that Season Score wasn't intended to be used for Cy Young predictions, but it certainly looks better than his old predictor. And we'll know more at the end of the season how it all shakes out.
Bill also generously pointed out that one of the changes he made was a reflection of work that I've adopted with respect to the weighting of K and BB. This is what sabermetrics is about, as everyone learns from everyone else, and we move forward together,
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