Friday, December 05, 2014
Buster Olney math
I'm sure you guys have seen the Amazon ratings? If the product you are looking at does not have at least 4 stars, you can bet it's below-average. Why is that? Because most people give products 4 or 5 stars. If you give a product a "neutral" 3 star, you are actually NOT being neutral. You are reducing the overall average of that item. If it was at 4.2, congratulations, you turned that into 4.14 or something. So, even if you give something 4 stars, you are being (slightly) NEGATIVE, turning that 4.2 into 4.19. So, if you in fact are neutral, or even positive (as a 3 or 4 star review would suggest), then the best thing to do is to NOT vote. Unless the overall average dips below 4, in which case your 4-star review would help. But your neutral 3-star review should... well, remain neutral by not voting.
Buster Olney has figured this out. He wants to vote for more than 10 players, and he knows that whoever he wants to vote for, but is prevented from appearing on his max-10 ballot will get hurt. Why? Because each ballot submitted adds 0.75 to the counter threshold needed for election. He thinks Raines, Mussina, and Schilling are deserving, but by not voting for them, but submitting his 10-man ballot anyway, he has now increased the threshold they need. Being neutral (in not voting for them) in fact means being negative.?
So, the only way to win? To not play the game.(*) Buster will not submit a ballot at all. This forces him to keep a neutral position. And Buster has perfectly demonstrated why the 10-player limit is useless.
All the voting body has to do is do like hockey does: allow unlimited players, but put in a max-4 players being voted in. If 5 get over the 75% level, then take the top 4. If 3 get over the 75% level, then take those 3. Simple.
(*) WarGames.
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