Wednesday, May 01, 2013
View to IBB
Dave shows what happens at the plate when you issue an IBB. Basically, the production of the batter at the plate is about 15% lower than what an average batter would be. That costs about .02 runs per PA. But, putting a runner on first base, say with two outs, adds .13 runs per PA. The net effect based on just these two quick views is .11 runs.
In any case, Table 4 in The Book has the data needed. In the base-out states before an IBB is issued, there's an average of 0.743 runs to end of inning. In the base-out states after an IBB is issued, an average of 0.845 runs score. That difference is 0.102 runs, which is the impact of the IBB. And, it matches up nicely with the sniff numbers in the paragraph above. ?
Anyway, we have a whole chapter devoted to the IBB, so, it's definitely worth a read.
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Doing a quick google, here's MGL talking about the IBB.