Wednesday, May 04, 2016
Was #NeverTrump #AlwaysFake?
?In the first 4 contests, Trump got 32.7% of the votes, Cruz 20.7% and the rest of the field got 46.6%. The media and experts and everyone with an opinion wanted us to believe that it was basically one-third Trump and two-thirds not-Trump. That as the field would be reduced, Trump's solid minority would not be able to attract the fallouts for the dropping-candidates, that they'd all gravitate to whoever was left standing next to Trump.
But look what happens when you simply discard the rest of the field, and just focus on Trump and Cruz: Trump got 61% of the votes, when picking between him and Cruz, which is the kind of number we've seen when the two of them went head-to-head. That is, for all the expert analysis that propped up the idea that the non-Trump non-Cruz voter would simply and overwhelmingly go with Cruz, the reality is that those voters who did not have Trump/Cruz as their #1 simply mirrored the voting of those that did have Trump/Cruz as their primary.
All of that discussion about unfavorability ratings and presumptions of behaviour, all that goes out the window. The non-vocal supporters simply matched the vocal supporters when given the choice between Trump/Cruz.