Sunday, September 15, 2024
Sacrifice Steal Attempt
Cleveland was ahead by 1 run in the bottom of the 5th, 1 out, runners on the corners. Chance of winning is .776
Runner on 1B attempted to steal 2B.
Choices for Rays was:
- Let runner steal uncontested, keep runner at bay, leaving runners at 2B+3B, chance of winning .795
- Throw to 2B, allow runner to score
- CS means .795
- SB means .833
As you can see, the win value of the runner at 3B gaining a base is exactly equal to the win value of the runner on 1B being thrown out. Which makes sense, since the run value of going from 3B to home plate is about plus 0.4 runs, and the run value of the CS is about minus 0.4 runs.
Of course, this ONLY makes sense if the CS was a guaranteed out. Otherwise, having the runner steal 2B and the runner scoring would be a disaster play.
End result: catcher should NOT have attempted to throw the runner out, and he got lucky to breakeven on that play.
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• 2024/09/16
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In-game_Strategy