Monday, February 04, 2013
Sabermetric Super Bowl
I don't watch enough football to remember to have Brian's live win probability chart up. One thing that I like to know is if a team that is trailing has more than a 50% chance of winning.
It's more obvious to see in baseball, where if you are down by 1 in the bottom of the ninth, no outs, and bases loaded, it's the defense that's sweating bullets, not the offense. But, when it does it flip over to the offense? Well, it just tips over with runners on first and second, no outs, down by 1, or runner on third, down by 1. (It's often the case that having runners on first and second is equivalent to just having a runner on third.)
Brian's site is (now) blocked at the office. Can someone tell me if there was ever a point where the trailing team had more than a 50% chance of winning?
The other fascinating play was at the end, with the safety. I think the broadcast team did a great job to bring it up at all, and it was interesting to hear their off-the-cuff unprepared analysis for it, saying they wouldn't do it. But, they totally didn't consider that they could run eight seconds off the clock. Even without the clock-running, it would seem it might have been more than breakeven to go for it. I'll wait for Brian's analysis on that too. But, I thought the director blew it by not showing us the defense formation? from a high view, and showing what the defense was going to do about it. I think in that case, it demanded a bird's eye view.
Any other high-leverage strategy plays?