Tuesday, May 26, 2015
Mike Trout or Albert Pujols?
First and third with Trout, two outs bottom of the 9th. A hit wins it, a walk gives the next batter a chance. So, one of the very few times we care about batting average. Trout will get a hit 30% of the time there's no walk, and he'll get a walk 12% of the time. If Trout walks, then it's on Pujols who will get a hit or walk 32% of the time.But, this is against Kimbrel. So, maybe Trout gets a hit 25% of the time when there's no walk, and he'll still walk 12%. And Pujols will get on base 25% of the time against Kimbrel.
So, Trout hitting means: (1-.12) x .25 + .12 x .25 = 25% of the time Angels win, 75% goes to extra innings.
If Pujols hits: 25% they win, 75% goes to Extra innings.
So, same thing.
***
Interestingly, and historically, 1st and 3rd 2 outs has been a 69% chance of winning, compared to bases loaded of 68%. That's in the 9th inning.
But in extra innings, it's 66% with 1st and 3rd, and 68% with bases loaded.
***
All to say, it's pretty much a pick-your-poison kind of situation, and you can look at Trout and Pujols specifically against Kimbrel, a very extreme kind of pitcher. It's possible that one guy matches up very differently against Kimbrel than the other.
***
Anyway, that's enough to get some aspiring saberist to take this to the next level. Either that, or we get MGL to run his simulator against these very extreme matchup types.