Thursday, January 31, 2013
Evidence of makeup calls
?A long research piece, which I might get to read at the office tomorrow.
The data shows that there is an overall "opposite effect": "bad" calls
help the parties they were called against; for example, a ball called a
strike will- on average- help the batter get on base at a higher rate
than an at-bat in which the correct call was made, and a strike called a
ball will- on average- lessen the likelihood that a batter reaches
base, favoring the pitcher. This supports previous research that umpires
may utilize "make-up" calls, whether consciously or unconsciously. Data
for this "opposite effect" wanes, or reverses, as the count grows long,
as umpires have less chance to provide a "make-up" call.
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