Tuesday, October 01, 2024
Cy Young Predictor 2024
As we know, when Corbin Burnes had his historical FIP season and won in 2021, that was a paradigm shift. From 2006-2020, the voters voted very consistently. And now, they are in a transition period. As a result, I have two Predictors, one is the Classic that works for 2006-2020, and another the New FIP-enhanced version that works almost as good as the Classic for 2021-2023. The Classic is probably a smidge ahead still, and it's a matter of time until the New version takes over. When that happens, I don't know. So, let's run both, with the Classic listed first, and the New in parens.
1. Skubal (1)
... way way way ahead
2A. Lugo (2)
2B. Burnes (5)
...
4. Valdez (6)
5A. Ragans (3)
5B. Blanco
5C. Gilbert (4)
5D. Miller
Anyone within ~1 point I put with the "letter" designation, signifying essentially a tie, and likely needing the New version as the tie-breaker
Even so, I consider FOUR points as being essentially tied, and so that's where the tiebreaker comes in. In the above, that means Valdez is really tied with the gang listed at #5
So, what do we learn here? Well, Skubal will win the Cy Young, easily. Number 2 will be Seth Lugo.
The uncertainty will be between Burnes who is NO LONGER the FIP-hero and Ragans. Burnes is ahead of Ragans by almost 6 points using the Classic Predictor, while Ragans is ahead of Burnes by almost 5 points using the New Predictor.
If we treat it as 3/4 Classic, 1/4 New, we get this as our top 6:
- Skubal
- Lugo
- Burnes
- Ragans
- Valdez
- Gilbert
Going 1/4 Classic, 3/4 New:
- Skubal
- Lugo
- Ragans
- Burnes
- Gilbert
- Valdez
And in all that will be Clase, who will finish somewhere between third and seventh. To finish second, he'd have to be considered the equal to Lugo, Burnes, Ragans. Given how little support the best relievers have received since Britton's incredible run in 2016, it'll be surprising if Clase is listed on all 30 ballots. As Britton was listed on 24/30, that's probably what Clase has as an over/under.
***
1A. Sale (1 runaway)
1B. Wheeler (2)
3. Skenes (3)
4A. Imanaga (9)
4B. King (6)
6. Lopez (7)
7. Cease (5)
..
10. Webb (4)
As close as Wheeler made it in the end, Sale's tripe-crown and runaway lead in the New Predictor will be an easy win for him. Whether it's unanimous is the only question.
Skenes will be third.
So, here's where the uncertainty happens, in the downballot. Cease/Webb are the FIP-hero, while Imanaga/King are the Classic hero.
Here's how it looks 3/4 Classic, 1/4 New:
- Sale
- Wheeler
- Skenes
- King
- Imanaga
- Lopez
- Cease
- Webb
Going 1/4 Classic, 3/4 New:
- Sale
- Wheeler
- Skenes
- Cease
- Webb
- King
- Lopez
- Imanaga
In order to see where we are in the paradigm shift, just look to see where Cease/Webb finish relative to Imanaga/King. Imanaga/King are ahead of Cease by 5 points and Webb by 10 points with the Classic Predictor. With the New Predictor, Webb is ahead of all of them, but especially with Imanaga by over 10 points. So, Webb/Imanaga especially will be the tell.
If you see a ballot that looks something like this:
Sale, Wheeler, Skenes, Webb, Imanaga
or
Sale, Wheeler, Skenes, Imanaga, Webb
Then you will see this makes no sense, as the voter has basically decided to not decide on their view. They've basically taken the position that they have no position and are still trying to balance everything out. A vote for Webb is a vote for Cease. And a vote for Imanaga is a vote for King. To choose one from each group is the reason we are still in this paradigm shift.