Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Odds of the Leafs collapse
The Maple Leafs scored a goal with over 14 minutes left in the game, to take a 4-1 lead, in a Game 7 against the Bruins. A simple Poisson distribution tells us that at that point, the Leafs had a 99.3% chance of winning the game. With 11 minutes to go, there was a faceoff, and the Leafs chance of winning was now at 99.6%. The Bruins scored seconds later, and were now down 4-2.? The Leafs still had a 97% chance of winning at this point. And with two minutes to, and the score still 4-2, the Leafs climbed back up to a 99.8% chance of winning.
That is, it took nine minutes of a scoreless game for the Leafs to make up for giving up that goal. 99.8% chance of winning. The Bruins then scored two goals in the space of 31 seconds to send it to overtime, and the Bruins won it in overtime.
***
Gabe, if you are out there, what does the historical record say in the regular season and playoffs, when a team has a 3 goal lead with 11 minutes to go, and a 2 goal lead with 2 minutes to go? Are these Poisson numbers similar?
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